Bitcoins - fad or trend?

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SilverDoge
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby SilverDoge » Mon Dec 03, 2018

mtforpar wrote:https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-is-close-to-becoming-worthless-2018-12-03

Bitcoin is close to becoming worthless...


Curious if you read the article or not? The author doesn't fully grasp what gives bitcoin value. He thinks that if miners can't at least break even, the mining proposition is a net loss and therefore people will stop mining altogether. And he is a professor of finance at Santa Clara University so he must be right.

As bitcoin difficulty increases, and break even costs go negative, some miners will stop mining because they are only in it for the cash flow. This is natural. Others will continue mining at a loss because they believe the value of bitcoin will increase over time, and will accept the current losses. The author mistakes the futures market as some be-all end-all. But the futures market doesn't deliver physical bitcoin, so it is just another fugazi. What the author doesn't fully comprehend is how the bitcoin ecosystem works. Exchanges like Coinbase, Binance, OkEx and many more have a highly vested interest to ensure that the bitcoin blockchain continues. They will mine bitcoin (or outsource it) at a loss if necessary to continue the network, and their business models. And if enough people (mining pools) stop mining, then the remaining miners will create more blocks, thereby winning more rewards of 12.5 bitcoin per block until 2020 when it halves again. There does not need to be a large amount of miners in the network, as long as there are enough people running full nodes - which is a full copy of the bitcoin blockchain to verify transactions, which doesn't cost all that much.

This will be another article piled atop the Bitcoin Obituaries list of yet another "finance academic" proven wrong about bitcoin's death. https://99bitcoins.com/obituary-stats/
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Mon Dec 03, 2018

CoinRivet: Nasdaq confirms it will list Bitcoin Futures.
https://coinrivet.com/nasdaq-confirms-it-will-list-bitcoin-futures/

Bincoinst: NO, LOWER BITCOIN PRICE WON’T START A MINING ‘DEATH SPIRAL’
https://coinrivet.com/nasdaq-confirms-it-will-list-bitcoin-futures/
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Tue Dec 04, 2018

NASDAQ: “We Did This With Gold”: Could VanEck Be Bitcoin’s Best Bet for an ETF?
https://www.nasdaq.com/article/we-did-this-with-gold-could-vaneck-be-bitcoins-best-bet-for-an-etf-cm1057460

Interesting enough, while VanEck does not intend for physical settlements in its' proposal, the fund will hold physical Bitcoins. That policy should help with price stabilization, volatility reduction, and ultimately the development of a 2 tiered market pricing mechanism (cash vs futures).
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby tdtwedt » Tue Dec 04, 2018

U.S. Treasury Sanctions Bitcoin Wallets For First Time

Last week, the U.S. Treasury Department of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) targeted two bitcoin addresses, announcing that the wallets associated Iranian citizens Ali Khorashadizadeh and Mohammad Ghorbaniyan had been added to the Specially Designated Nationals sanctions list.

The sanctions, which are the first of their kind, are part of a wider move to track and restrict movements in the digital space involving money laundering and cybercrime.

Additionally, the OFAC noted that the agency would be looking into exchanges who facilitated transactions by these individuals.


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12- ... first-time
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Tue Dec 04, 2018

tdtwedt wrote:U.S. Treasury Sanctions Bitcoin Wallets For First Time

Last week, the U.S. Treasury Department of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) targeted two bitcoin addresses, announcing that the wallets associated Iranian citizens Ali Khorashadizadeh and Mohammad Ghorbaniyan had been added to the Specially Designated Nationals sanctions list.

The sanctions, which are the first of their kind, are part of a wider move to track and restrict movements in the digital space involving money laundering and cybercrime.

Additionally, the OFAC noted that the agency would be looking into exchanges who facilitated transactions by these individuals.


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12- ... first-time


Thanks for the post. The author of this article has provided clips from an article that was published in its' entirety by CoinDesk. That link is in the article.

If the 2 Iranians conducted "peer-to-peer" transactions between themselves, no 3rd party exchange would necessary. If either individual wished to "cash-out" their Bitcoins, another buyer (or exchange) would be necessary.

Bitcoins are not anonymous, however a significant amount of time and computing horsepower are required.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby SilverDoge » Wed Dec 05, 2018

Rik Bitter wrote:
mtforpar wrote:https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-is-close-to-becoming-worthless-2018-12-03

Bitcoin is close to becoming worthless...


Imagine if you bought in the summer prior, near the top, (18K) and took the HODL advice all the crypto acolytes suggest.


Chris Coney explains it even better than I did in my previous post. Start the video at 12:08 to go directly to this topic:
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby SilverDoge » Wed Dec 05, 2018

Bucketeer wrote:
tdtwedt wrote:U.S. Treasury Sanctions Bitcoin Wallets For First Time

Last week, the U.S. Treasury Department of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) targeted two bitcoin addresses, announcing that the wallets associated Iranian citizens Ali Khorashadizadeh and Mohammad Ghorbaniyan had been added to the Specially Designated Nationals sanctions list.

The sanctions, which are the first of their kind, are part of a wider move to track and restrict movements in the digital space involving money laundering and cybercrime.

Additionally, the OFAC noted that the agency would be looking into exchanges who facilitated transactions by these individuals.


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12- ... first-time


Thanks for the post. The author of this article has provided clips from an article that was published in its' entirety by CoinDesk. That link is in the article.

If the 2 Iranians conducted "peer-to-peer" transactions between themselves, no 3rd party exchange would necessary. If either individual wished to "cash-out" their Bitcoins, another buyer (or exchange) would be necessary.

Bitcoins are not anonymous, however a significant amount of time and computing horsepower are required.


The off-ramps back to fiat are where the criminals usually get caught. Can a criminal be tracked if they do not convert back to fiat? Yes, but it is a lot of work for authorities. I personally have no issues with any of this. I have off-ramped to fiat via Coinbase many times. The government is fully aware of my bitcoin purchases and sales, and there is nothing illegal about it. Most crypto users want nothing to do with criminal activities; we want an alternative to government controlled (corrupt) fiat currency.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Wed Dec 05, 2018

I had Coney's video "suggested" to me by YouTube, but passed on it. Glad you posted it here Doge, any possible mining scenario is explored logically, and the various outcomes make perfect economic sense.

Bitcoin is a "free-market" commodity. It is possible for Bitcoin to be price-manipulated in the short-term, but it is difficult to imagine any ongoing, long-term price manipulation.

On a different note, there was a series of transactions last week from a single bitcoin wallet, to a multiple of 101 different wallets. The transmitting wallet contained over 300,000 Bitcoin, and slightly over 66,000 Bitcoins were transferred out.

The total dollar amount of these transactions was greater than $250 Million dollars.

What is truly amazing is that the total cost of these transactions was $3.80. Had this been conducted via a wire transfer, the fee would exceed $250,000.

This transaction illustrates the fear of Bitcoin that is widely held by the banking cartels.
Last edited by Bucketeer on Wed Dec 05, 2018, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Rik Bitter » Wed Dec 05, 2018

SilverDoge wrote:
Rik Bitter wrote:
mtforpar wrote:https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-is-close-to-becoming-worthless-2018-12-03

Bitcoin is close to becoming worthless...


Imagine if you bought in the summer prior, near the top, (18K) and took the HODL advice all the crypto acolytes suggest.


Chris Coney explains it even better than I did in my previous post. Start the video at 12:08 to go directly to this topic:


Thanks , that was an interesting talk. I actually do believe bitcoin will recover and probably surpass it's previous highs at some point but I also believe it will also crash again and and repeat that cycle over and over. For now at least, It's a curiosity for tech savvy speculators. The reason I think this is because I don't believe it will ever be trusted by your average Joe. There have been too many bitcoin thefts from the exchanges, the technical hurdles and expense to get in are too high. Add to that the volatility which keeps it from ever being taken serious for commerce and I don't see how it will ever really penetrate the popular zeitgeist.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby XFactor » Wed Dec 05, 2018

I know its really hard to call the bottom in bitcoin, but what are you guys guessing? Do we have blood in the streets yet?

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby SilverDoge » Wed Dec 05, 2018

XFactor wrote:I know its really hard to call the bottom in bitcoin, but what are you guys guessing? Do we have blood in the streets yet?


Between $2,400 - $3,000.... ish. Below $2k would really surprise me.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Wed Dec 05, 2018

Rik Bitter wrote:Thanks , that was an interesting talk. I actually do believe bitcoin will recover and probably surpass it's previous highs at some point but I also believe it will also crash again and and repeat that cycle over and over. For now at least, It's a curiosity for tech savvy speculators.

You've nailed it Rik. The average Joe doesn't trust Bitcoin for all of the reasons that you've outlined.

However, the number of new users continues to increase, despite the difficulties involved with Bitcoin. All of these difficulties are going to be addressed as the amount of adoption increases. The future "growth" rate is going to be phenomenal. Bitcoin adoption over next 10 years will far exceed the past 10 years, despite the 329 times that the media has declared Bitcoin to be dead. https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoinobituaries/.

Bitcoin is like the Energizer Bunny. It keeps going and going.

RikBitter wrote: The reason I think this is because I don't believe it will ever be trusted by your average Joe.

Bitcoin does not have a "marketing department", but it will be here before you know it. "Educational marketing" will begin by the brokerage houses once ETFs become available for them to sell to their clients. Actually, the client demand already exists.

The adoption of the metric system in the USA failed because of a lack of education (marketing). Most "averages Joes" are unable to convert Miles into Kilometers, or Kilograms into Ounces off the top of their head.

Trust is lacking because of a lack of understanding. This will change through education.

RikBitter wrote:There have been too many bitcoin thefts from the exchanges, the technical hurdles and expense to get in are too high.

The exchange thefts that have occurred are "growing pains" in the adoption of Bitcoin, and are, for the most part, no longer a threat. The major exchanges like CoinBase and Gemini have insurance to cover future losses, and any ETF will undoubtedly require insurance for SEC approval or market acceptance.

The nature of the exchange business requires 2 classes of wallets, known as "hot" or "cold". The hot wallet is used for daily trading purposes, and the cold wallet is "air-gapped" from the Internet.

To further illustrate the safety of using exchanges, Coinbase holds less than 2% of digital assets in their hot wallet. Furthermore, any dollar-denominated holdings are insured by the FDIC for a maximum of $250,000.

Despite the safely, it is still recommended that you personally hold your Bitcoins (private keys) on a secure storage device. DO NOT STORE LARGE QUANTITIES OF BITCOIN ON YOUR COMPUTER OR ESPECIALLY YOUR CELLPHONE.

The expense fees to buy or sell Bitcoin are pricey. Those fees are very negligible if you use a "market-maker" or "market-taker" order to facilitate your transaction.

RikBitter wrote:Add to that the volatility which keeps it from ever being taken serious for commerce and I don't see how it will ever really penetrate the popular zeitgeist.

The volatility of Bitcoin has decreased yearly, but the perception of massive volatility still exists. Greater adoption should further decrease volatility. The recent ability to easily hedge small physical positions (5 BTC) using Futures will go a long way to facilitate commerce.

One last comment on volatility. The price swings are very large because (1) they are, and (2) are quoted is BTC/USD. Assuming that Bitcoin continues its' historical growth patterns, the next run should see prices of $40-$80K per Bitcoin.

At some point, Bitcoin will be quoted as a Statoshi/USD pair, because owning 1 Bitcoin is beyond the means of the world's population.

You've mentioned that, at best, Bitcoin is a "tech-savvy" speculation. I strongly disagree that Bitcoin is a speculation.
Over 85% of Bitcoin is held by HOLDers, not speculators. Because of the public ledger, any wallet transaction can be seen by anybody. Very little Bitcoin actually trades, and the majority of these trades occur on exchanges, and are small in nature.

It is pretty easy to manipulate the price of Bitcoin, given the size of the "active" markets. The real whales trade "under-the-counter" via 3rd party partners in order to minimize volatility, or contract directly with mining pools using a purchase agreement.
Last edited by Bucketeer on Wed Dec 05, 2018, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Wed Dec 05, 2018

XFactor wrote:I know its really hard to call the bottom in bitcoin, but what are you guys guessing? Do we have blood in the streets yet?

I think not, but my opinion isn't worth a nickel at the Bar.

Most people have lost out trying to pick a "bottom" in anything, unless they have a very long perspective and the "item" doesn't become obsolete.

My opinion is the next rally will be bigger than you can ever anticipate.

People had no problem buying bitcoin at $7K all the way to $20K. Most of them have panic sold at a loss and now won't dare to re-invest under $4K. Something tells me the next leg-up will see prices of $40K to $80K per BTC.

Bitcoin hit $20K last year.
- without Goldman Sachs
- without Morgan Stanley
- without Citigroup
- without ETFs
- without Futures
- without the lightning network.

Bitcoin has had 7 massive up-cycles over the past 10 years.

Bitcoin is less risky now than it ever was. Bitcoin was a HUGE speculation at 10 cents, at $1, at $10, and at $100.

If you decide to buy, there are only 2 things to consider. The 1st is that the price of Bitcoin is going to zero. That seems highly unlikely. The second thing is your ability to sit on your hands over a long time horizon and tolerate the volatility.

It is hard to hold a winner, and most traders lose money. Good luck with your decision.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Rik Bitter » Wed Dec 05, 2018

Bucketeer wrote:
Rik Bitter wrote:Thanks , that was an interesting talk. I actually do believe bitcoin will recover and probably surpass it's previous highs at some point but I also believe it will also crash again and and repeat that cycle over and over. For now at least, It's a curiosity for tech savvy speculators.

You've nailed it Rik. The average Joe doesn't trust Bitcoin for all of the reasons that you've outlined.

However, the number of new users continues to increase, despite the difficulties involved with Bitcoin. All of these difficulties are going to be addressed as the amount of adoption increases. The future "growth" rate is going to be phenomenal. Bitcoin adoption over next 10 years will far exceed the past 10 years, despite the 329 times that the media has declared Bitcoin to be dead. https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoinobituaries/.

Bitcoin is like the Energizer Bunny. It keeps going and going.

RikBitter wrote: The reason I think this is because I don't believe it will ever be trusted by your average Joe.

Bitcoin does not have a "marketing department", but it will be here before you know it. "Educational marketing" will begin by the brokerage houses once ETFs become available for them to sell to their clients. Actually, the client demand already exists.

The adoption of the metric system in the USA failed because of a lack of education (marketing). Most "averages Joes" are unable to convert Miles into Kilometers, or Kilograms into Ounces off the top of their head.

Trust is lacking because of a lack of understanding. This will change through education.

RikBitter wrote:There have been too many bitcoin thefts from the exchanges, the technical hurdles and expense to get in are too high.

The exchange thefts that have occurred are "growing pains" in the adoption of Bitcoin, and are, for the most part, no longer a threat. The major exchanges like CoinBase and Gemini have insurance to cover future losses, and any ETF will undoubtedly require insurance for SEC approval or market acceptance.

The nature of the exchange business requires 2 classes of wallets, known as "hot" or "cold". The hot wallet is used for daily trading purposes, and the cold wallet is "air-gapped" from the Internet.

To further illustrate the safety of using exchanges, Coinbase holds less than 2% of digital assets in their hot wallet. Furthermore, any dollar-denominated holdings are insured by the FDIC for a maximum of $250,000.

Despite the safely, it is still recommended that you personally hold your Bitcoins (private keys) on a secure storage device. DO NOT STORE LARGE QUANTITIES OF BITCOIN ON YOUR COMPUTER OR ESPECIALLY YOUR CELLPHONE.

The expense fees to buy or sell Bitcoin are pricey. Those fees are very negligible if you use a "market-maker" or "market-taker" order to facilitate your transaction.

RikBitter wrote:Add to that the volatility which keeps it from ever being taken serious for commerce and I don't see how it will ever really penetrate the popular zeitgeist.

The volatility of Bitcoin has decreased yearly, but the perception of massive volatility still exists. Greater adoption should further decrease volatility. The recent ability to easily hedge small physical positions (5 BTC) using Futures will go a long way to facilitate commerce.

One last comment on volatility. The price swings are very large because (1) they are, and (2) are quoted is BTC/USD. Assuming that Bitcoin continues its' historical growth patterns, the next run should see prices of $40-$80K per Bitcoin.

At some point, Bitcoin will be quoted as a Statoshi/USD pair, because owning 1 Bitcoin is beyond the means of the world's population.

You've mentioned that, at best, Bitcoin is a "tech-savvy" speculation. I strongly disagree that Bitcoin is a speculation.
Over 85% of Bitcoin is held by HOLDers, not speculators. Because of the public ledger, any wallet transaction can be seen by anybody. Very little Bitcoin actually trades, and the majority of these trades occur on exchanges, and are small in nature.

It is pretty easy to manipulate the price of Bitcoin, given the size of the "active" markets. The real whales trade "under-the-counter" via 3rd party partners in order to minimize volatility, or contract directly with mining pools using a purchase agreement.



This gives me a few things to think about. I think working in the IT world for so long has made me a bit cynical. Bitcoin is just vaporware to me. Until it's proven out, I'll probably remain bullish. I understand this precludes me from striking it rich. I'm cool with that.

I'm actually rooting for one of the crytpos to take root, because governments always corrupt their currency in the end. A decentralized unit of exchange couldn't be any worse so I hope it gets it's shot.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Wed Dec 05, 2018

Rik Bitter wrote:This gives me a few things to think about. I think working in the IT world for so long has made me a bit cynical. Bitcoin is just vaporware to me. Until it's proven out, I'll probably remain bullish. I understand this precludes me from striking it rich.


I think that most people who have bought Bitcoin felt like they financially "walked off" a cliff on their first transaction, but it takes the same amount of intestinal fortitude to buy Bitcoin, whatever at $10 or the current market price.

My 1st buy was hard. In retrospect, I bought way more than I should have, and I "panic-sold" on the 1st major decline. Fortunately, I was able to buy my position back without a loss, and I learned a valuable lesson.

Of course, that was then, and this is now. If I was going to buy Bitcoin for the first time, I would make my initial purchase and then use regular dollar-cost averaging going forward.

My objective would have only 2 outcomes - I would either become very rich, or I would lose it all.

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby tdtwedt » Fri Dec 07, 2018

Bitcoin plunges more than 11 percent to fresh lows for the year

One analyst told CNBC via email that the cryptocurrency market "definitely seems to be suffering."

"The market is in a general bearish trend that doesn't seem to be letting up driven by what seems to be a general negative sentiment towards crypto," said Zennon Kapron, director at financial technology consultancy Kapronasia. "As the market is heavily retail driven, it's very much at the mercy of group sentiment which causes huge swings."

"Without any positive drivers in the near future, this could continue well into 2019," he said.


https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/07/bitcoin ... arket.html

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby MauserMan » Fri Dec 07, 2018

Bucketeer wrote:Bitcoin has had 7 massive up-cycles over the past 10 years.

Bitcoin is less risky now than it ever was. Bitcoin was a HUGE speculation at 10 cents, at $1, at $10, and at $100.


If you decide to buy, there are only 2 things to consider. The 1st is that the price of Bitcoin is going to zero. That seems highly unlikely. The second thing is your ability to sit on your hands over a long time horizon and tolerate the volatility.

It is hard to hold a winner, and most traders lose money. Good luck with your decision.

My concern is that it has only flourished and had these bull runs against the backdrop of an inflationary environment and worldwide money printing. We appear to be entering a huge deflation at the end of one of the longest cyclical upswings in history, if not now, then soon. Cryptos are still being sold as a risk asset when speculators are cutting all their risk. I wish BTC was performing better as a safe haven but it has been anything but. It seems that the massive parabolic rally is still too close in the rear view mirror for its bear market to end anytime soon. Markets usually overshoot to the upside and downside so I expect them to go very low indeed - possibly for years.

I’d rather just accumulate gold and silver, with plenty of dry powder cash for bargains as the big bear continues to pick up steam.

My observations from owning crypto briefly- there’s FAR more risks than owning PMs or other assets. The crypto civil wars and constant government attacks are a sight to behold for the investor looking for a safe bet.

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Sat Dec 08, 2018

Medium: Rumors of the Demise of the Blockchain Industry Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
https://medium.com/@omid.malekan/rumors-of-the-decline-of-the-blockchain-industry-have-been-greatly-exaggerated-3b897ace508f

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby jcz1 » Sat Dec 08, 2018

From the above article:

The same could be said of names like Walmart and Fidelity, both of which announced major blockchain-based initiatives this past summer. Many more seem to be watching, as expressed by Mike Dudas, founder of The Block, a leading blockchain news and intelligence service. When I asked him whether interest had declined with price, he said “despite the decline, corporate interest is accelerating, and we’ve seen significant professional uptake in our coverage.”


Walmart using blockchain to improve food safety has absolutely nothing to do with the price of bitcoin. Your own industry can't seem to keep this straight. Sad.

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Sat Dec 08, 2018

jcz1 wrote:From the above article:

The same could be said of names like Walmart and Fidelity, both of which announced major blockchain-based initiatives this past summer. Many more seem to be watching, as expressed by Mike Dudas, founder of The Block, a leading blockchain news and intelligence service. When I asked him whether interest had declined with price, he said “despite the decline, corporate interest is accelerating, and we’ve seen significant professional uptake in our coverage.”


Walmart using blockchain to improve food safety has absolutely nothing to do with the price of bitcoin. Your own industry can't seem to keep this straight. Sad.

Did you read this article? It is all about the blockchain, not the price of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin and blockchain are completely different topics for discussion, despite the fact that blockchain technology originated from Bitcoin. Bitcoin is not an industry, but the success of Bitcoin has created the blockchain and fin-tech industry.

(1st paragraph from the article)
The sharp decline in the price of cryptocoins has spurred an outpouring of commentary from columnists and academics who — suspicious of the asset class all along — now feel vindicated. But their focus on falling prices this year is just as foolhardy as the evangelists focus on gains last year, and somewhat misses the point. The biggest blockchain headline of 2018 isn’t that prices have crashed, but that adoption has accelerated throughout the decline.


Bullion Stacker is all about differing opinions, and that's great. What is truly "sad" is that some of the people posting in this topic are still afraid of using Paypal, a mature, well-proven, and time-tested payment system that has been in use for 20 years.

Some of the founders of Paypal have lamented that their original intention was to be a payment system like Bitcoin, but they were unable to make it happen. What is amazing is that a handful of crypto-punks developed Bitcoin, creating something that a well-funded corporation with many brilliant people were unable to accomplish.

I posted the article because I liked the newspaper headline in the picture. The official death count is still 329.
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