Long John wrote:I recently watched a video, I think it was Node Investor, in which he used a historical chart to show that the market's behavior in 2018 wasn't so much like 2014 (which featured a long "winter" for crypto) as it was like 2013, which featured a much shorter wait until the market turned up again. Now, I don't believe much in a market repeating history just because a sample from the present resembles a sample from the past. For one thing, the 2013 market was nothing like the 2018 market, neither in the kinds of forces driving it nor the scale and impact of those forces. You can't point to a similar pattern on the chart 5 years ago and conclude that has any bearing on today.
But I hope Node Investor was right.
I don't use those historic price moves as any type of future predictor, but I will look at it from a "what is a possible or worst-case scenario"? Now technically reality can be even worse than previous worst case scenarios, but it is a decent lower bound. That 2014-2015 long slow bear market could repeat, but I don't see that happening in reality. Adoption and awareness are much greater now, so we'll see.