Bitcoin Cash Poll

Discussion of all things crypto and blockchain.

Will Bitcoin Cash become the dominant chain within 1 year

1) Not a chance
18
38%
2) 1-10% chance
8
17%
3) 11-25% chance
9
19%
4) 26-50% chance
8
17%
5) 51-75% chance
2
4%
6) 76-99% chance
0
No votes
7) Yes, I guarantee it!
3
6%
 
Total votes: 48

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SilverDoge
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Bitcoin Cash Poll

Postby SilverDoge » Wed Aug 02, 2017

Within 1 year, will Bitcoin Cash become the dominant blockchain overtaking Bitcoin? Meaning will it have a larger market cap, a larger daily volume, become either equal to, or the greater pairing against other alt-coins on major exchanges?
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Brick's
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Re: Bitcoin Cash Poll

Postby Brick's » Wed Aug 02, 2017

I thought it already was. But, what do I know about the stuff???

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SilverDoge
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Re: Bitcoin Cash Poll

Postby SilverDoge » Wed Aug 02, 2017

Brick's wrote:I thought it already was. But, what do I know about the stuff???


Look at Market Cap and Volume below... Bitcoin v Bitcoin Cash:

BTC v BCC.png
BTC v BCC.png (32.81 KiB) Viewed 904 times
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Silversaving
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Re: Bitcoin Cash Poll

Postby Silversaving » Wed Aug 02, 2017

Really all it will take is one successful hack of segwits sig coding. We'll see how it goes, but I'm not a big fan of segwit coin. Too much unproven code being forced into bitcoin.

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Brick's
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Re: Bitcoin Cash Poll

Postby Brick's » Thu Aug 03, 2017

Oh, the little details. I saw Bitcoin. Never realized there was such a thing as "Bitcoin Cash". But like I said "What do I know about this stuff?"

So what's the difference? The latter is coins with logarithms chains in them? (jking) At 6 in the morning I'm not sure I want to know.

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SilverDoge
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Re: Bitcoin Cash Poll

Postby SilverDoge » Thu Aug 03, 2017

Brick's wrote:Oh, the little details. I saw Bitcoin. Never realized there was such a thing as "Bitcoin Cash". But like I said "What do I know about this stuff?"

So what's the difference? The latter is coins with logarithms chains in them? (jking) At 6 in the morning I'm not sure I want to know.


Bitcoin Cash was just created on August 1st.

First off, anyone can "fork" an open source project right from the GitHub. The issue is that if I decide to fork Bitcoin and call it SilverDogeBitcoin, and I set up mining power to support it, if I'm the only one doing it then it will be worthless, and nobody will accept it. It won't be added to exchanges, and it will have no network effects. Therefore, I will be wasting money mining it and sooner or later I will either give up or go broke. The point being that the free market is what matters here. If 30% of mining support decides to stop mining bitcoin and start mining Bitcoin Cash, that is very significant and the market will answer. The first few days of valuation hasn't been completely fair of course. Exchanges like Bittrex gave their holders their respective Bitcoin Cash so they could trade it, but they couldn't withdraw it. And people who held in personal wallets couldn't add their newly acquired bitcoin cash to dump it on the exchange. This created a bit of false market demand that will right itself out eventually.

Watch the first 5-6 minutes at least of this video for a good explanation of the differences and why it all happened:
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Long John
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Re: Bitcoin Cash Poll

Postby Long John » Thu Aug 03, 2017

SilverDoge wrote: The first few days of valuation hasn't been completely fair of course. Exchanges like Bittrex gave their holders their respective Bitcoin Cash so they could trade it, but they couldn't withdraw it. And people who held in personal wallets couldn't add their newly acquired bitcoin cash to dump it on the exchange. This created a bit of false market demand that will right itself out eventually.

On Bittrex people paid as high as nearly half a bitcoin for a single bitcoin cash token. It is now worth less than half that, and heading down (worth even less on other exchanges). In two days those people lost more than half of their BCH investment. Tomorrow it might be three quarters.

Now, that was small group of people, I'm sure, and that peak price around 0.49 BTC was brief. That's the cost of buying in during such a period of extreme volatility. I'm sure those people who paid at the peak thought it would keep going higher. I confess I did the same thing with BAT when it hit Bittrex. Trading on emotion can be expensive. How quickly Fear Of Missing Out can turn into a massive loss.

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Re: Bitcoin Cash Poll

Postby silverpv » Fri Aug 04, 2017

Long John wrote:
SilverDoge wrote: The first few days of valuation hasn't been completely fair of course. Exchanges like Bittrex gave their holders their respective Bitcoin Cash so they could trade it, but they couldn't withdraw it. And people who held in personal wallets couldn't add their newly acquired bitcoin cash to dump it on the exchange. This created a bit of false market demand that will right itself out eventually.

On Bittrex people paid as high as nearly half a bitcoin for a single bitcoin cash token. It is now worth less than half that, and heading down (worth even less on other exchanges). In two days those people lost more than half of their BCH investment. Tomorrow it might be three quarters.

Now, that was small group of people, I'm sure, and that peak price around 0.49 BTC was brief. That's the cost of buying in during such a period of extreme volatility. I'm sure those people who paid at the peak thought it would keep going higher. I confess I did the same thing with BAT when it hit Bittrex. Trading on emotion can be expensive. How quickly Fear Of Missing Out can turn into a massive loss.


I'm fairly certain that was bots trading with each other. The spread between exchanges would've made doing that so stupid. Plus the pattern was fairly stable. Once the 20 confirmations go through people will unload. I had some bcc over in bittrex, i was planning on holding or buying dumps but saw the strange spread and sold out at .28 . The bots laid out the chum and attracted a lot of people deposit their bcc into bittrex only to find out it required 20 confirmations.

https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/uahf/#24h

The catch, people didn't know about the 20 confirmation to trade, BUT because of the price drop. The new strategy by miners is to wait 12 more blocks to lower the difficulty. First drop lowered the difficulty so blocks would be generated in 1/4 the time of BTC, that puts the price 25% at ~$700. Obvioulsy that's not profitable. SOOOO now there's a delay to drop it again to 1/16th or 8%, which puts the price at ~$220. At that price mining might be profitable. The side effect is because they slowed down the mining, the 20 confirmations take longer. lol, building up anticipation whoever confirms first can sell right away at the highest price. What the graph shows is that there's approx 2.2% of total supply in queue! a good chunk likely heading to bittrex to dump for free btc. As such, i setup some lowball orders for $.75, $.5 $.25. I'm hoping there's a whale that'll come in and liquidate and we see a flash crash to see who can sell first. You can see the supply on bittrex in the asks is rather low 15k bcc only with i think tens of thousands maybe even hundreds of thousands of bcc coins heading over there.

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Re: Bitcoin Cash Poll

Postby SilverDoge » Fri Aug 04, 2017

silverpv wrote:
https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/uahf/#24h

The catch, people didn't know about the 20 confirmation to trade, BUT because of the price drop. The new strategy by miners is to wait 12 more blocks to lower the difficulty. First drop lowered the difficulty so blocks would be generated in 1/4 the time of BTC, that puts the price 25% at ~$700. Obvioulsy that's not profitable. SOOOO now there's a delay to drop it again to 1/16th or 8%, which puts the price at ~$220. At that price mining might be profitable. The side effect is because they slowed down the mining, the 20 confirmations take longer. lol, building up anticipation whoever confirms first can sell right away at the highest price. What the graph shows is that there's approx 2.2% of total supply in queue! a good chunk likely heading to bittrex to dump for free btc. As such, i setup some lowball orders for $.75, $.5 $.25. I'm hoping there's a whale that'll come in and liquidate and we see a flash crash to see who can sell first. You can see the supply on bittrex in the asks is rather low 15k bcc only with i think tens of thousands maybe even hundreds of thousands of bcc coins heading over there.


This is good info. It is hard for me to imagine the price crashing to under $1... I mean, BCC was over $1,200 at one point!?!?! I sold too early from the peak, but we are back under the price I sold at. I'm not buying BCC with this current down trend, unless there is a type of flash crash that you mention. But if I was some large whale with 10k BCC to dump, you would think that spreading it out over all the exchanges makes the most sense instead of just dumping it all on Bittrex. But who knows, anything is possible.

Again, thanks for this data. Time to adjust some buy prices.
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Re: Bitcoin Cash Poll

Postby SilverDoge » Fri Aug 04, 2017

Coinbase updated policy on Bitcoin Cash:

.....
In the case of bitcoin cash, we made clear to our customers that we did not feel we could safely support it on the day it was launched. For customers who wanted immediate access to their bitcoin cash, we advised them to withdraw their bitcoin from the Coinbase platform. However, there are several points we want to make clear for our customers:

Both bitcoin and bitcoin cash remain safely stored on Coinbase.
Customers with balances of bitcoin at the time of the fork now have an equal quantity of bitcoin cash stored by Coinbase. We operate by the general principle that our customers should benefit to the greatest extent possible from hard forks or other unexpected events.

Over the last several days, we’ve examined all of the relevant issues and have decided to work on adding support for bitcoin cash for Coinbase customers. We made this decision based on factors such as the security of the network, customer demand, trading volumes, and regulatory considerations.

We are planning to have support for bitcoin cash by January 1, 2018, assuming no additional risks emerge during that time.

Once supported, customers will be able to withdraw bitcoin cash. We'll make a determination at a later date about adding trading support. In the meantime, customer bitcoin cash will remain safely stored on Coinbase.

Thank you,

Coinbase Team

:pop:
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Re: Bitcoin Cash Poll

Postby silverpv » Fri Aug 04, 2017

SilverDoge wrote:
silverpv wrote:
https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/uahf/#24h

The catch, people didn't know about the 20 confirmation to trade, BUT because of the price drop. The new strategy by miners is to wait 12 more blocks to lower the difficulty. First drop lowered the difficulty so blocks would be generated in 1/4 the time of BTC, that puts the price 25% at ~$700. Obvioulsy that's not profitable. SOOOO now there's a delay to drop it again to 1/16th or 8%, which puts the price at ~$220. At that price mining might be profitable. The side effect is because they slowed down the mining, the 20 confirmations take longer. lol, building up anticipation whoever confirms first can sell right away at the highest price. What the graph shows is that there's approx 2.2% of total supply in queue! a good chunk likely heading to bittrex to dump for free btc. As such, i setup some lowball orders for $.75, $.5 $.25. I'm hoping there's a whale that'll come in and liquidate and we see a flash crash to see who can sell first. You can see the supply on bittrex in the asks is rather low 15k bcc only with i think tens of thousands maybe even hundreds of thousands of bcc coins heading over there.


This is good info. It is hard for me to imagine the price crashing to under $1... I mean, BCC was over $1,200 at one point!?!?! I sold too early from the peak, but we are back under the price I sold at. I'm not buying BCC with this current down trend, unless there is a type of flash crash that you mention. But if I was some large whale with 10k BCC to dump, you would think that spreading it out over all the exchanges makes the most sense instead of just dumping it all on Bittrex. But who knows, anything is possible.

Again, thanks for this data. Time to adjust some buy prices.


I'm sure that spread lured people into bittrex. Those walls in the graph is literally bcc waves moving somewhere. I'm thinking that premium on bittrex drew them in and now they're stuck because of the combination of confirmations and difficulty reductions. When they start to compete for the first sell, it'll be a race down because it's in three big waves, each of them bringing around another group of sellers. Don't forget it's going to be slow for 12 blocks so now that they moved it in it takes almost as long to send out to another exchange like hours.. so they are forced to sell there or wait for more blocks.. lol i think it might be an opportunity. Like you I'm not buying at high prices, but firesale prices? Sure.. low risk, but just testing a theory.. though I should spread the ladder a more..

Ps. The way it goes that low is when one whale buys the lot. Right now there's a 1:2 ratio of sellers to buyers when that moves higher you know the wave was confirmed. There's gonna be more sellers than buyers and one whale can clean out the btc once the bids start drying up.. ironically bitcoin core talking about being worthless is why people might dump it low for btc.

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Re: Bitcoin Cash Poll

Postby silverpv » Fri Aug 04, 2017

I was looking at the chart right and decided to drill down a little more. It looks like right now its at block 18 and 2 more blocks before it starts $1 3 $44M is a big wave and 4 is the biggest block carrying $90M.. etc.

A lot of coins are being moved. It's easily around 1 million coins. Out of those, I'm going to guess 50% is bittrex because of that premium trap.

https://blockchair.com/bitcoin-cash/blocks

the biggest block left column 1 row 478600 has a payload of 227k bcc. We're at row 478617. Means we're 3 away from the bittrex coins stuck in there being let loose. The one right before it is 111k bcc coins. The smaller ones are constantly coming in. Look at column OUTPUT(BTC) its really BCC to see the # of coins coming with each block. It's gonna come in pretty big waves down.

here's a time chart. Each one is taking 2 ~hrs. 12 blocks is when the new difficulty kicks that's when the withdraw restriction releases. It's either 6 or 12 since its MTP (mean time past, so block 6) or 12 hrs from start.

https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/uahf/#2d

if the theory plays out, i'm using this thread to document it. I'm planning on doing a vid on how to read the blocks... :wave:

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Re: Bitcoin Cash Poll

Postby SilverDoge » Fri Aug 04, 2017

silverpv wrote:I was looking at the chart right and decided to drill down a little more. It looks like right now its at block 18 and 2 more blocks before it starts $1 3 $44M is a big wave and 4 is the biggest block carrying $90M.. etc.

A lot of coins are being moved. It's easily around 1 million coins. Out of those, I'm going to guess 50% is bittrex because of that premium trap.

https://blockchair.com/bitcoin-cash/blocks

the biggest block left column 1 row 478600 has a payload of 227k bcc. We're at row 478617. Means we're 3 away from the bittrex coins stuck in there being let loose. The one right before it is 111k bcc coins. The smaller ones are constantly coming in. Look at column OUTPUT(BTC) its really BCC to see the # of coins coming with each block. It's gonna come in pretty big waves down.

here's a time chart. Each one is taking 2 ~hrs. 12 blocks is when the new difficulty kicks that's when the withdraw restriction releases. It's either 6 or 12 since its MTP (mean time past, so block 6) or 12 hrs from start.

https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/uahf/#2d

if the theory plays out, i'm using this thread to document it. I'm planning on doing a vid on how to read the blocks... :wave:


This is excellent. Keep us updated please. I'm going to start buy orders at below $150.
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Re: Bitcoin Cash Poll

Postby SilverDoge » Fri Aug 04, 2017

Long John wrote: Trading on emotion can be expensive. How quickly Fear Of Missing Out can turn into a massive loss.


It is easy to get caught up. After I sold some just shy of $500 and saw it go over $1,000, I literally began to repeat to myself "I will not FOMO in, I will not FOMO in" but it is tempting when you see the price gapping up, and let that doubt creep in... can BCC really overtake bitcoin? No way... but that price? It was 90% FOMO. So glad I didn't give in to that temptation. And now we see real opportunity approaching. There are people really trying to keep that BCC price up, but the dumps are (most likely) going to keep coming.
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Re: Bitcoin Cash Poll

Postby Silversaving » Fri Aug 04, 2017

I'm hopefull they dump hard in the days upcoming. I'd really like to sit on a big chunk of BCC for a year or so but I'd prefer to pay $100 or so. Hopefully I get my wish.

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Re: Bitcoin Cash Poll

Postby Long John » Fri Aug 04, 2017

BCH is falling hard. A lot of people preached before the fork to keep your Bitcoin OFF the exchanges, to be safe. So those who followed that advice had to watch the price rocket to the moon and back while being unable to put their own BCH in play. Now the supply on the exchanges is increasing, with the expected result.

Bittrex is in line with the rest of the market now, even dropping below it (as perhaps some other exchanges are still waiting to allow deposit of BCH). It's $275-ish at this moment. I didn't have the balls to have a lot of BTC exposed at the time of the fork, but I had some profit from the USDT bounce and I admit I bought some BCH when it hit 0.20 BTC, but sold WAY too early at 0.31 (it got up into the upper 0.40s :shock: ) But now it's under 0.10, I'm very glad I didn't HODL, and now with BTC and BCH heading in opposite directions I'm thinking about when (or IF) to get back in BCH. I'm thinking it might well get down to $100.

Edit: Like others here I have set some silly orders to take advantage of a deep crash if there is one. Not as low as less than $1, though. Mine range from $6 to $19. Which means it will crash as low as $20 before bouncing. :lol:

I'm not really into the religion of Bitcoin Cash, and not convinced it is viable in the long run, but profit is profit.

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Re: Bitcoin Cash Poll

Postby silverpv » Fri Aug 04, 2017

Theory didn't work, bittrex has a circuit breaker type algo that's gradually releasing inventory to prevent dumping. THere are now buys for over 850M bcc there's not that much for sale. So. womp wom.. but learned quite abit about how forking mining difficulty affects market order books.

i took some profits from this run. it was a good run, but i'm gonna park some profits in usdt.

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Re: Bitcoin Cash Poll

Postby SilverDoge » Fri Aug 04, 2017

silverpv wrote:bittrex has a circuit breaker type algo that's gradually releasing inventory to prevent dumping.


Are you sure about this? If so, is there a way to prove it, or are you speculating?
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Re: Bitcoin Cash Poll

Postby silverpv » Fri Aug 04, 2017

SilverDoge wrote:
silverpv wrote:bittrex has a circuit breaker type algo that's gradually releasing inventory to prevent dumping.


Are you sure about this? If so, is there a way to prove it, or are you speculating?


Speculating, a couple guys in the r/btc reddit say this is normal to avoid the volatility of new supply. Since they are market makers. It seems strange to me, but it corresponds with what i'm seeing. Once the supply is completely released I would expect normal trading to resume. It's a good way to do things to prevent those flash crashes.

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Re: Bitcoin Cash Poll

Postby Long John » Fri Aug 04, 2017

silverpv wrote:THere are now buys for over 850M bcc there's not that much for sale.

There's only 16M in existence. :lol:
How many of those 850M are bid for under a dollar? Or a dime? A lot, judging from total BTC value of those bids. The market for this thing is too strange right now. I think it dropped $100 over the course of the day, about $200 at this hour. I'm not tempted at this level.

silverpv wrote: took some profits from this run. it was a good run, but i'm gonna park some profits in usdt.

Me too, but not from Bitcoin Cash. Bitcoin is over $3000! :clap: Time to bank the profit and batten down the hatches against the dump.


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