Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Please put all polls here.

Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Poll ended at Tue Dec 12, 2017

Hell Yes!
25
46%
Yes.
7
13%
Maybe.
5
9%
No.
9
17%
Hell No!
2
4%
Don't care/ Don't Know
6
11%
 
Total votes: 54

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Bucketeer
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby Bucketeer » Thu Dec 28, 2017

SilverDoge wrote:
BotanicusRex wrote:No intrinsic value + 1200 competitors (and counting) + FOMO weak hands (Fear Of Missing Out) + negative legislation (S.Korea,China,?) + 'investment' need for constant flow of new money (Ponzi-like) + a founder seeing the 'lite' and bailing with a mega fortune + generally bad press + corruption risk (where there's a will there's a way) = Bubblelicious


Interesting. Here is how I read your paragraph.... while the elites, Wall St crowd, and media establishment pushed the real estate bubble and dot com bubble to ridiculous highs (as they all profited), now that those same people are left out in the cold on crypto, and the common man is able to profit without them, they bad-mouth it at every possible chance in order to convince the masses that it is a bubble and it is in your best interest to stay as far away as possible. And even with governments trying to outlaw or regulate it, media personalities warning you to stay away, elite banksters calling it a fraud - they still can't stop it, and it continues to gain adoption.


BINGO!

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BotanicusRex
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby BotanicusRex » Thu Dec 28, 2017

SilverDoge wrote:
BotanicusRex wrote:No intrinsic value + 1200 competitors (and counting) + FOMO weak hands (Fear Of Missing Out) + negative legislation (S.Korea,China,?) + 'investment' need for constant flow of new money (Ponzi-like) + a founder seeing the 'lite' and bailing with a mega fortune + generally bad press + corruption risk (where there's a will there's a way) = Bubblelicious


Interesting. Here is how I read your paragraph.... while the elites, Wall St crowd, and media establishment pushed the real estate bubble and dot com bubble to ridiculous highs (as they all profited), now that those same people are left out in the cold on crypto, and the common man is able to profit without them, they bad-mouth it at every possible chance in order to convince the masses that it is a bubble and it is in your best interest to stay as far away as possible. And even with governments trying to outlaw or regulate it, media personalities warning you to stay away, elite banksters calling it a fraud - they still can't stop it, and it continues to gain adoption.

PM stackers on the same side as the elites, banksters, MSM, and the authors of debt based fiat really has to make you wonder. Crypto is the easiest way to get a person to begin questioning "what is money?" and as soon as they ask that question the rabbit hold goes deep. This is exactly what the status quo doesn't want - a mass awakening. But PM stackers want to pretend that crypto is an enemy, and in doing so unceremoniously take the side of elite banksters. If only they could see that we fight the same evil, and we are two sides of the same coin against the corrupt elites.


I don't want to get into a discussion here when there are so many other more appropo threads to discuss this. But...
Agree that governments and banksters will fight crypto tooth and nail to maintain their means of power. This doesn't mean that they are automatically wrong to do so. Maybe they also 1) don't understand it completely (unlikely), or 2) really believe it is too DotComish to get into.
I also don't believe all these inbred Wharton grads (who likely DO understand the concept) would allow themselves or even their companies to be left out in the cold if they thought for a second there was a legitimate 10-banger to be had.

As far as sour grapes, I doubt that. Myself and probably many others were fortunate enough through a variety of ways to profit from the dotcoms before they imploded. In my case it was 'circumstantial' dumb luck pure and simple. So when I see people rejoicing about 300 to 19,000 moves - great, go for it! But understand where the value lies.. intrinsic value. Is it there? What exactly supports the valuation? Value certainly wasn't there in most of the dotcoms.

So, if you get a queasy feeling when thinking about the pile of unrealized FRNs you are sitting on; and then try to determine where that value really is; and you can't decide who you will ask to shoot you if it all suddenly evaporates; well, then I've got some nice PMs to sell you with your winning stack of FRNs. :angel:
"You have a choice between the natural stability of gold, and the honesty and intelligence of the members of government. Vote for Gold."........ George Bernard Shaw

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SilverDoge
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby SilverDoge » Thu Dec 28, 2017

BotanicusRex wrote:I don't want to get into a discussion here when there are so many other more appropo threads to discuss this. But...
Agree that governments and banksters will fight crypto tooth and nail to maintain their means of power. This doesn't mean that they are automatically wrong to do so. Maybe they also 1) don't understand it completely (unlikely), or 2) really believe it is too DotComish to get into.
I also don't believe all these inbred Wharton grads (who likely DO understand the concept) would allow themselves or even their companies to be left out in the cold if they thought for a second there was a legitimate 10-banger to be had.

How could governments be "right" if/when they choose to fight crypto? Would they be right to limit or constrain you from trading your personal property with your neighbor? We have forgotten what liberty and free markets are to such an extent that we look for big daddy government to tell us everything is okay. Even if they thought cryptos were too "dotcom-ish" why is it their job to restrict free markets from figuring out value if the markets are not overtly manipulated?
BotanicusRex wrote:As far as sour grapes, I doubt that. Myself and probably many others were fortunate enough through a variety of ways to profit from the dotcoms before they imploded. In my case it was 'circumstantial' dumb luck pure and simple. So when I see people rejoicing about 300 to 19,000 moves - great, go for it! But understand where the value lies.. intrinsic value. Is it there? What exactly supports the valuation? Value certainly wasn't there in most of the dotcoms.

The issue here is your comparison between crypto as a competitor to money and a stock. I've discussed this at length already but bitcoin is not a stock and therefore can't be overvalued based on any metric you want to throw out about stocks. It's value comes from the network usage and the number of people desiring to use it over other less desirable inflationary fiat currencies.
BotanicusRex wrote:So, if you get a queasy feeling when thinking about the pile of unrealized FRNs you are sitting on; and then try to determine where that value really is; and you can't decide who you will ask to shoot you if it all suddenly evaporates; well, then I've got some nice PMs to sell you with your winning stack of FRNs. :angel:

I was just pondering earlier today why there are seemingly so many military guys or vets into crypto - at least here on BS. It's funny you mention shooting myself if my crypto wealth vanishes. Once you've actually been shot at with real bullets, life has a way of narrowing your scope. My crypto could all go to zero tomorrow and I'll be just fine. I still have a great family, wonderful daughters, and a Lord and Savior I believe in regardless of this temporary earthly wealth. I believe in crypto for more than just ephemeral profits. It is our gateway to potentially free ourselves from our bankster overlords who don't care about the 99% of humanity. Yes, there might be a fight, even a war - but what is the alternative? Look to Venezuela if you want to see what happens if we choose to do nothing. That is our current trajectory, except in the case of the US, when it all collapses, the entire world will blame us since the USD is the de facto world reserve currency.
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby BotanicusRex » Thu Dec 28, 2017

I didn't mean to direct the shooting thing at you personally. That wasn't a proper comment. sorry.

I understand crypto is not supposed to be a competitor to stocks or dollars, euros, etc... but in fact it is. Currently it is not a currency as intended, it is being used as an investment... a euphoric investment with no value.
And, as a counter to banksters and other moneyed PTB, I would like to see them succeed. Maybe one day one or a few will emerge as legit currency alternatives. But I doubt I will see it happen.
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SilverDoge
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby SilverDoge » Fri Dec 29, 2017

BotanicusRex wrote:I didn't mean to direct the shooting thing at you personally. That wasn't a proper comment. sorry.

No harm, no foul.
BotanicusRex wrote:I understand crypto is not supposed to be a competitor to stocks or dollars, euros, etc... but in fact it is. Currently it is not a currency as intended, it is being used as an investment... a euphoric investment with no value.

Some crypto will in fact be investments. Others that act as actual crypto currencies with the purpose of being a currency are not investments even though some people are utilizing them for that purpose currently. If mass adoption occurs, these currencies will level out and have less volatility (many years from now). This just means that early adopters have the opportunity to increase their purchasing power today. See this post in regards to value:
http://www.bullionstacker.com/viewtopic.php?f=108&t=15864&p=559619#p559619

BotanicusRex wrote:And, as a counter to banksters and other moneyed PTB, I would like to see them succeed. Maybe one day one or a few will emerge as legit currency alternatives. But I doubt I will see it happen.

Don't be so sure. We are getting closer than you might think.
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby tdtwedt » Sat Dec 30, 2017

A Stunning Look Inside The World Of South Korea's "Bitcoin Zombies"

“I no longer want to become a math teacher,” said 23-year-old Eoh Kyong-hoon, who founded the club, Cryptofactor. "I’ve studied this industry for more than 10 hours a day over months, and I became pretty sure that this is my future."


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12- ... in-zombies
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby Rastatodd » Sat Dec 30, 2017

My thanks go out to BotanicusRex and SilverDoge for the excellent back and fourth about this subject. I found it good reading. I can see both positions but I tend to lean to the side of Botanicusrex. But on the other hand SilverDoge does bring home the bacon when it comes to "freeing ourselves from the banking overlords (don't get me started on my dislike of Wells Fargo). I would love for that day to come for sure. I don't see myself ever having the knowledge or the heart to jump into cryptocurrencies. There seems to be a lot of problems right now with high fees as well as little to no takers at the retail sector of these "coins" and so many newcomers to the crypto coin phenomenon that I find it hard to choose which one I would go with if I was to choose. Thanks gentlemen as well as BullionStacker for giving me something to think about on a cold December morning. Happy New Years to one and all!
Last edited by Rastatodd on Sat Dec 30, 2017, edited 2 times in total.

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Bucketeer
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby Bucketeer » Sat Dec 30, 2017

Happy New Year Doge, BotanicusRex, and Rasta, it is freezing in Central Florida. Minnesota must be awfully cold right now. Good posts from all.

Getting shot at is like having kinky sex for the 1st time. The 1st time is scary, after that it is normal (if you liked it).

Doge is right when he says (1) Bitcoin is not comparable to a stock, and (2) the price isn't overvalued, however the price and "value" are undetermined.

if 3 people agree to trade it (a market). Consider this. If I offered to give you a silver war nickle or a 2017 nickle, what would you choose? As long as there is a market, the prices are justified, although both are worth 5 cents at the bank .

Intrinsic vale of a FRN - really? Unless you are going to buy land, payoff a mortgage, or buy an existing and successful commercial business, why you ever consider selling Bitcoin for USD? Do you just want a big balance in your checking account, or are you wanting to buy a Lambo? Neither seems like good choices.

Bitcoin is complex. Nakamoto wrote in the code "How do I explain this to people?". Doge said "once you've actually been shot at with real bullets, life has a way of narrowing your scope. My crypto could all go to zero tomorrow and I'll be just fine."

Doge mentioned active duty military and veterans being into crypts. I'm a vet, and that's the way I feel about it. It can go to the moon or it can drop to zero. I sleep very well at night. That might be a foolish attitude, but I don't care. The price doesn't scare me, it is the technology that I am more interested in. I'll be fine, and I laugh at the price. Bitcoin is an experiment. It did take me some time to get used to the price swings. lol :thumbup:

Those FRNs that have been around since when the creation of The Fed occurred have only lost value over time. FRN has utility value for trade, but is an economic losing proposition. It has no interstice vale, just like Bitcoin.

When I was 5 years old, I could ride my bike to the bodega and buy a Coca-cola for 5 cents. Now it is at least a $1.00. That's what happened over 57 years to the value of the dollar.

You might want to reconsider Bitcoin, and study it further. It wasn't easy to understand the concept of Bitcoin, and it took me several years before I developed confidence in it. Bitcoin scared me, I'd check the price all the time. Now, I'll go a couple of days without checking Bitcoin or Silver.

BTW......I treasure my Engelhoard, but it has only lost money for the past several years. What's in your wallet?
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby tdtwedt » Thu Jan 04, 2018

Anatomy Of A Crypto-Nightmare: Ripple CEO Is Now Richer Than Zuckerberg

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01- ... zuckerberg

:pop:
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby jcz1 » Thu Jan 04, 2018

tdtwedt wrote:Anatomy Of A Crypto-Nightmare: Ripple CEO Is Now Richer Than Zuckerberg

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01- ... zuckerberg

:pop:


If either one of them tried to cash completely out, I don't think they'd end up with anywhere near their "paper wealth" amounts. But Zuck would probably end up with more.

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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby Bucketeer » Thu Jan 04, 2018

jcz1 wrote:
tdtwedt wrote:Anatomy Of A Crypto-Nightmare: Ripple CEO Is Now Richer Than Zuckerberg

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01- ... zuckerberg

:pop:


If either one of them tried to cash completely out, I don't think they'd end up with anywhere near their "paper wealth" amounts. But Zuck would probably end up with more.


Large positions usually don't cash-out by being "dumped" in a single order. It is a process that requires weeks or months in order to maintain the market price.
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby silverhead » Thu Jan 04, 2018

I'd say bubble, but I know next to squat about "cryptos".
My personal view stems from my "life situation" not research.
I have been "too poor" being on a fixed income living basically pay check to pay check to have any extra funds to gamble with. I have been burnt a few times with bubbles in my life, can't afford any gambles now.
If I stumbled upon some "madd money", say $100k like from an inheritance or lottery winnings. I would consider putting $10k in bitcoin, but would probably not due to what I see as an overly complicated "operating system". It's hard enough selling pms now :lol: ..
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby tdtwedt » Sat Jan 06, 2018

Criminals Abandon Bitcoin As Privacy Weakens

As Bloomberg reports, privacy coins such as monero, designed to avoid tracking, have climbed faster over the past two months as law enforcers adopt software tools to monitor people using bitcoin. A slew of analytic firms such as Chainalysis are getting better at flagging digital hoards linked to crime or money laundering, alerting exchanges and preventing conversion into traditional cash.


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01- ... cy-weakens
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby tdtwedt » Sun Jan 07, 2018

Bitcoin Futures Traders Are Quietly Building A Big Short Position

An analysis by the Wall Street Journal confirms that while hedge funds and other large traders are betting that bitcoin will fall, small investors remain convinced that bitcoin prices will keep on rising.

As the WSJ reports, for traders who hold fewer than 25 of Cboe’s bitcoin futures contracts—a category that likely encompasses many retail investors—bullish bets are 3.6 times more common than bearish ones, according to the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission data that cover trading through Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the big CBOE players in bitcoin futures tend to be short. For instance, among “other reportables”—large trading firms that don’t necessarily manage money for outside investors—short bets outweighed bullish “long” bets by a factor of 2.6 last week.


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01- ... t-position
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby SilverDoge » Mon Jan 08, 2018

tdtwedt wrote:Bitcoin Futures Traders Are Quietly Building A Big Short Position

An analysis by the Wall Street Journal confirms that while hedge funds and other large traders are betting that bitcoin will fall, small investors remain convinced that bitcoin prices will keep on rising.

As the WSJ reports, for traders who hold fewer than 25 of Cboe’s bitcoin futures contracts—a category that likely encompasses many retail investors—bullish bets are 3.6 times more common than bearish ones, according to the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission data that cover trading through Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the big CBOE players in bitcoin futures tend to be short. For instance, among “other reportables”—large trading firms that don’t necessarily manage money for outside investors—short bets outweighed bullish “long” bets by a factor of 2.6 last week.


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01- ... t-position


That headline reads so scary... except for these 2 facts pointed out in the actual article:

Fact 1: To be sure, shorting bitcoin futures doesn’t necessarily mean a trader expects bitcoin to crash. In a natural hedge, a cryptocurrency trading firm [or a bitcoin mining company] with significant holdings of bitcoin might go short to hedge those inventories against a price fall. That would make the firm indifferent as to whether bitcoin goes up or down.

Fact 2: The combined size of the bitcoin-futures markets at the two exchanges was roughly $150 million, measured in terms of the value of outstanding contracts, while the total value of all bitcoins in existence was around $290 billion. Futures trading volumes remain very modest compared to average Bitcoin trading volumes of around $15bn per day.

So by their own admission, the CASH settled bitcoin futures market is quite small in volume, and actually makes sense for bitcoin miners to utilize it to reduce their own volatility. Imagine that. It's almost like a futures market that is being used by hedgers of those who might actually own asset, as a futures market is supposed to be used (and not just price speculation by traders).

Let's look at another metric. Those people who want to actually buy the real bitcoin and other cryptos (and not a cash settled future). In the past month or two, the following exchanges have stopped accepting new users because they are so busy, and receiving so many new applicants that they can't handle it: Cryptopia, Bittrex (since November), Binance. And those are just the ones that I'm aware of. Bittrex & Binance are two of the big players in this space! Binance received over 250,000 applicants in a single day. Because this happens in the online world, perhaps it doesn't seem a big deal to you.

Imagine if APMEX received a million new users in a week or two. And then JM Bullion stopped accepting new orders because they couldn't handle the customer demand volume. And then I posted a ZH article about how PMs are in a bubble because some institutional investors were short less than 1% of the daily volume. Everybody would have a good laugh at my expense. So go ahead and short bitcoin on the futures market... if you dare.
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby tdtwedt » Wed Jan 10, 2018

Buffett: "I Would Buy A Five-Year Put On Every Cryptocurrency"

"In terms of cryptocurrencies, generally, I can say with almost certainty that they will come to a bad ending," said Buffett, the chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01- ... tocurrency

:pop:
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby Silversaving » Wed Jan 10, 2018

...you omitted the first part of his quote "[Cryptocurrencies are] something I don't know anything about"
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby SilverDoge » Wed Jan 10, 2018

tdtwedt wrote:Buffett: "I Would Buy A Five-Year Put On Every Cryptocurrency"

"In terms of cryptocurrencies, generally, I can say with almost certainty that they will come to a bad ending," said Buffett, the chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01- ... tocurrency

:pop:


Silversaving wrote:...you omitted the first part of his quote "[Cryptocurrencies are] something I don't know anything about"


I love this. Buffett is literally having an emotional response to what he doesn't understand. The exact OPPOSITE of how he made his money in stocks by being rational, patient, and buying value when others ran. He couldn't explain blockchain tech to a 3rd grade class, but he knows enough to buy puts (if he could). At least he isn't dumb enough to short the crypto market blindly. Here is his conclusion: because I don't understand this, and I don't have easy metrics to properly assign valuation I declare them all overvalued based on.... my emotions.
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tdtwedt
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby tdtwedt » Wed Jan 10, 2018

Buffett said the same thing about the dot com bubble.

:pop:
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby Gus Chiggins » Wed Jan 10, 2018

SilverDoge wrote:Here is his conclusion: because I don't understand this, and I don't have easy metrics to properly assign valuation I declare them all overvalued based on.... my emotions.


I would say his comments are no different than most people who don't understand it.
Going up? Must be a bubble.
What about stocks that he DOES know about? They've been rising since 2008. Not a bubble though, right? All of the FRNs printed and institutions sinking newly-printed dollars into the market. No bubble, though, right?
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