Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Please put all polls here.

Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Poll ended at Tue Dec 12, 2017

Hell Yes!
25
46%
Yes.
7
13%
Maybe.
5
9%
No.
9
17%
Hell No!
2
4%
Don't care/ Don't Know
6
11%
 
Total votes: 54

User avatar
tdtwedt
Gold Supporter
Posts: 3522
Joined: Sat Nov 01, 2014
Location: South Mississippi

Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby tdtwedt » Wed Jan 10, 2018

Gus Chiggins wrote:
SilverDoge wrote:Here is his conclusion: because I don't understand this, and I don't have easy metrics to properly assign valuation I declare them all overvalued based on.... my emotions.


I would say his comments are no different than most people who don't understand it.
Going up? Must be a bubble.
What about stocks that he DOES know about? They've been rising since 2008. Not a bubble though, right? All of the FRNs printed and institutions sinking newly-printed dollars into the market. No bubble, though, right?


You could argue everything (except metals) is a bubble. Because of the easy money policy of the whole world with historical low interest rates, there is a bubble in most assets. Including the stock market, real estate, and now the latest is the crypto space.

Buffett is no fool. He is building up his cash hoard for when this all crashes. Pay attention to him. He did not become one of the richest people in the world by being stupid.
There are more ways than one to skin a cat.

User avatar
Gus Chiggins
Platinum Proof Supporter
Posts: 1134
Joined: Thu Aug 20, 2009

Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby Gus Chiggins » Wed Jan 10, 2018

tdtwedt wrote:
Gus Chiggins wrote:
SilverDoge wrote:Here is his conclusion: because I don't understand this, and I don't have easy metrics to properly assign valuation I declare them all overvalued based on.... my emotions.


I would say his comments are no different than most people who don't understand it.
Going up? Must be a bubble.
What about stocks that he DOES know about? They've been rising since 2008. Not a bubble though, right? All of the FRNs printed and institutions sinking newly-printed dollars into the market. No bubble, though, right?


You could argue everything (except metals) is a bubble. Because of the easy money policy of the whole world with historical low interest rates, there is a bubble in most assets. Including the stock market, real estate, and now the latest is the crypto space.

Buffett is no fool. He is building up his cash hoard for when this all crashes. Pay attention to him. He did not become one of the richest people in the world by being stupid.



Then he probably shou'dve gotten into bitcoin when it was $5 if he were so smart.
Image

User avatar
BotanicusRex
Supporter
Posts: 2925
Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2010
Location: Minnesota

Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby BotanicusRex » Wed Jan 10, 2018

If Buffett doesn't understand something (ex.: where the value is in dotcoms or crypto) he generally stays away from it. As far as the concept of blockchains, I expect he (and staff) does understand that better than most.

His investing criteria served him (and his investors) very well over the years.
"You have a choice between the natural stability of gold, and the honesty and intelligence of the members of government. Vote for Gold."........ George Bernard Shaw

User avatar
tdtwedt
Gold Supporter
Posts: 3522
Joined: Sat Nov 01, 2014
Location: South Mississippi

Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby tdtwedt » Tue Jan 16, 2018

Image
There are more ways than one to skin a cat.

User avatar
SilverDoge
Constitutional Supporter
Posts: 3999
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2014
Location: Italy

Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby SilverDoge » Tue Jan 16, 2018

Image
Image

User avatar
BotanicusRex
Supporter
Posts: 2925
Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2010
Location: Minnesota

Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby BotanicusRex » Tue Jan 16, 2018

OOOOGA OOOOGA .. This is not a drill
"You have a choice between the natural stability of gold, and the honesty and intelligence of the members of government. Vote for Gold."........ George Bernard Shaw

dtomek
Posts: 7
Joined: Thu Jan 18, 2018

Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby dtomek » Thu Jan 18, 2018

My own opinion is that there might be a few crypto-currencies that make it long term as a trading solution, but that the vast majority will eventually go to zero. That said, I don't play this game.

AuMax
Gold Supporter
Posts: 1692
Joined: Sun Apr 25, 2010

Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby AuMax » Thu Jan 18, 2018

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/01/17/crypt ... -for-2017/

So have crypto hedge funds triggered the collapse by trying to get their money out of an illiquid market?

,,,

Other hedge funds, family offices, and wealthy individuals got caught up in the craze. They shoved serious money into a market with little liquidity, which propelled the market higher. But now if they try to get even a modicum of money back out, prices collapse — there being little liquidity.

...

With billions of dollars begging to be taken out of the market, every such move demonstrates just how illiquid the market is, and how impossible it is to take a hedge-fund-appropriate sum of money out without causing a plunge. For this scheme to work, they need to engineer another flood of money into the market so that the funds can get their money out. But the speculator’s saviors-of-last-resort – central banks – have shown no inclination to step in and bail those folks out.
.
ImageImageImage

A Japanese proverb states, "Vision without action is a daydream. Action without vision is a nightmare."

User avatar
SilverDoge
Constitutional Supporter
Posts: 3999
Joined: Mon Apr 21, 2014
Location: Italy

Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby SilverDoge » Fri Jan 19, 2018

AuMax wrote:https://wolfstreet.com/2018/01/17/crypto-collapse-crushes-hedge-funds-that-touted-huge-gains-for-2017/

So have crypto hedge funds triggered the collapse by trying to get their money out of an illiquid market?

,,,

Other hedge funds, family offices, and wealthy individuals got caught up in the craze. They shoved serious money into a market with little liquidity, which propelled the market higher. But now if they try to get even a modicum of money back out, prices collapse — there being little liquidity.

...

With billions of dollars begging to be taken out of the market, every such move demonstrates just how illiquid the market is, and how impossible it is to take a hedge-fund-appropriate sum of money out without causing a plunge. For this scheme to work, they need to engineer another flood of money into the market so that the funds can get their money out. But the speculator’s saviors-of-last-resort – central banks – have shown no inclination to step in and bail those folks out.


Interesting article. It is hard for me to take it seriously when in the second paragraph I read this line..."Ripple, the crypto that has recently been touted as the “next bitcoin” or “better than bitcoin,”

Seriously? Anybody who has been in the crypto space more than 2 weeks ought to be able to laugh at that statement. Ripple could be "worth" 10 times the bitcoin price and it will still never be the "next bitcoin" or "better than bitcoin".

Anyway, reading the article - what is not stated is how these people/hedge funds are buying bitcoin. Are they buying the real thing from GDAX or other exchanges? The futures (cash settled) market? OTC from a broker?

I've no idea because they don't say. Bitcoin wasn't invented so that Wall St traders could make millions. I understand that is a side benefit, and even I participate (on a small scale) in the volatility and gains. The difference being I'm trying to acquire more bitcoin and the Wall St traders just want more USD.

This is why I favor an ETF that is actually required to hold the bitcoin in a provable and publicly known address. A futures market that is cash settled is really just legalized gambling (which ought to be legal anyway). This would bring liquidity to the market and give an outlet for institutional investors who actually want to have the option to "take delivery" of their bitcoin if desired.
Image

AuMax
Gold Supporter
Posts: 1692
Joined: Sun Apr 25, 2010

Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby AuMax » Fri Jan 19, 2018

^^ to me btc and all such are a slow motion train wreck, but time will tell for sure. Thankfully the board allowed filtering out the majority of related posts.

Perhaps you could post your questions about the article in Wolf's site....it would be really interesting to read what happens.
.
ImageImageImage

A Japanese proverb states, "Vision without action is a daydream. Action without vision is a nightmare."


Return to “Polling Place”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest