Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Please put all polls here.

Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Poll ended at Tue Dec 12, 2017

Hell Yes!
25
46%
Yes.
7
13%
Maybe.
5
9%
No.
9
17%
Hell No!
2
4%
Don't care/ Don't Know
6
11%
 
Total votes: 54

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tdtwedt
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby tdtwedt » Wed Jan 10, 2018

Gus Chiggins wrote:
SilverDoge wrote:Here is his conclusion: because I don't understand this, and I don't have easy metrics to properly assign valuation I declare them all overvalued based on.... my emotions.


I would say his comments are no different than most people who don't understand it.
Going up? Must be a bubble.
What about stocks that he DOES know about? They've been rising since 2008. Not a bubble though, right? All of the FRNs printed and institutions sinking newly-printed dollars into the market. No bubble, though, right?


You could argue everything (except metals) is a bubble. Because of the easy money policy of the whole world with historical low interest rates, there is a bubble in most assets. Including the stock market, real estate, and now the latest is the crypto space.

Buffett is no fool. He is building up his cash hoard for when this all crashes. Pay attention to him. He did not become one of the richest people in the world by being stupid.
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Gus Chiggins
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby Gus Chiggins » Wed Jan 10, 2018

tdtwedt wrote:
Gus Chiggins wrote:
SilverDoge wrote:Here is his conclusion: because I don't understand this, and I don't have easy metrics to properly assign valuation I declare them all overvalued based on.... my emotions.


I would say his comments are no different than most people who don't understand it.
Going up? Must be a bubble.
What about stocks that he DOES know about? They've been rising since 2008. Not a bubble though, right? All of the FRNs printed and institutions sinking newly-printed dollars into the market. No bubble, though, right?


You could argue everything (except metals) is a bubble. Because of the easy money policy of the whole world with historical low interest rates, there is a bubble in most assets. Including the stock market, real estate, and now the latest is the crypto space.

Buffett is no fool. He is building up his cash hoard for when this all crashes. Pay attention to him. He did not become one of the richest people in the world by being stupid.



Then he probably shou'dve gotten into bitcoin when it was $5 if he were so smart.
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BotanicusRex
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby BotanicusRex » Wed Jan 10, 2018

If Buffett doesn't understand something (ex.: where the value is in dotcoms or crypto) he generally stays away from it. As far as the concept of blockchains, I expect he (and staff) does understand that better than most.

His investing criteria served him (and his investors) very well over the years.
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tdtwedt
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby tdtwedt » Tue Jan 16, 2018

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SilverDoge
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby SilverDoge » Tue Jan 16, 2018

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BotanicusRex
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby BotanicusRex » Tue Jan 16, 2018

OOOOGA OOOOGA .. This is not a drill
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby AuMax » Thu Jan 18, 2018

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/01/17/crypt ... -for-2017/

So have crypto hedge funds triggered the collapse by trying to get their money out of an illiquid market?

,,,

Other hedge funds, family offices, and wealthy individuals got caught up in the craze. They shoved serious money into a market with little liquidity, which propelled the market higher. But now if they try to get even a modicum of money back out, prices collapse — there being little liquidity.

...

With billions of dollars begging to be taken out of the market, every such move demonstrates just how illiquid the market is, and how impossible it is to take a hedge-fund-appropriate sum of money out without causing a plunge. For this scheme to work, they need to engineer another flood of money into the market so that the funds can get their money out. But the speculator’s saviors-of-last-resort – central banks – have shown no inclination to step in and bail those folks out.
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SilverDoge
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby SilverDoge » Fri Jan 19, 2018

AuMax wrote:https://wolfstreet.com/2018/01/17/crypto-collapse-crushes-hedge-funds-that-touted-huge-gains-for-2017/

So have crypto hedge funds triggered the collapse by trying to get their money out of an illiquid market?

,,,

Other hedge funds, family offices, and wealthy individuals got caught up in the craze. They shoved serious money into a market with little liquidity, which propelled the market higher. But now if they try to get even a modicum of money back out, prices collapse — there being little liquidity.

...

With billions of dollars begging to be taken out of the market, every such move demonstrates just how illiquid the market is, and how impossible it is to take a hedge-fund-appropriate sum of money out without causing a plunge. For this scheme to work, they need to engineer another flood of money into the market so that the funds can get their money out. But the speculator’s saviors-of-last-resort – central banks – have shown no inclination to step in and bail those folks out.


Interesting article. It is hard for me to take it seriously when in the second paragraph I read this line..."Ripple, the crypto that has recently been touted as the “next bitcoin” or “better than bitcoin,”

Seriously? Anybody who has been in the crypto space more than 2 weeks ought to be able to laugh at that statement. Ripple could be "worth" 10 times the bitcoin price and it will still never be the "next bitcoin" or "better than bitcoin".

Anyway, reading the article - what is not stated is how these people/hedge funds are buying bitcoin. Are they buying the real thing from GDAX or other exchanges? The futures (cash settled) market? OTC from a broker?

I've no idea because they don't say. Bitcoin wasn't invented so that Wall St traders could make millions. I understand that is a side benefit, and even I participate (on a small scale) in the volatility and gains. The difference being I'm trying to acquire more bitcoin and the Wall St traders just want more USD.

This is why I favor an ETF that is actually required to hold the bitcoin in a provable and publicly known address. A futures market that is cash settled is really just legalized gambling (which ought to be legal anyway). This would bring liquidity to the market and give an outlet for institutional investors who actually want to have the option to "take delivery" of their bitcoin if desired.
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby AuMax » Fri Jan 19, 2018

^^ to me btc and all such are a slow motion train wreck, but time will tell for sure. Thankfully the board allowed filtering out the majority of related posts.

Perhaps you could post your questions about the article in Wolf's site....it would be really interesting to read what happens.
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby jcz1 » Sun Jan 21, 2018

I can't believe a certain someone hasn't posted this already...

90% of bitcoin's value could get wiped out, Wall Street veteran Peter Boockvar warns

Boockvar, a CNBC contributor, contends bitcoin is in danger of dropping 90 percent from current levels. He calls it a classic bubble.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/19/bitcoin ... warns.html

He also poses an interesting question:

Boockvar sees the collapse coming in tandem as interest rates rise around the globe. He blames central banks, including the Federal Reserve, for the cryptocurrency craze due to their easy money policies that were designed to ease the effects of the global financial crisis.

"You have to wonder if we never heard of quantitative easing, would there have been cryptocurrencies?" Boockvar asked rhetorically in Thursday's interview.

Once the cryptocurrency market cracks, he contends, investor attitudes toward risk assets will change. According to Boockvar, the stock market could see collateral damage, but it would all be based on psychology — not on anything that's fundamentally wrong with the economy.


"I wouldn't be surprised if over the next year it's down to $1,000 to $3,000," he added.


I know people have stated that if it drops to $6k they plan on buying. I wonder if the same holds true for 3k? For 1k?

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Bucketeer
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby Bucketeer » Sun Jan 21, 2018

Gentlemen prefer Engelhard.

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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby Bucketeer » Sun Jan 21, 2018

Gentlemen prefer Engelhard.

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Bucketeer
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby Bucketeer » Sun Jan 21, 2018

jcz1 wrote:I can't believe a certain someone hasn't posted this already...

90% of bitcoin's value could get wiped out, Wall Street veteran Peter Boockvar warns

Boockvar, a CNBC contributor, contends bitcoin is in danger of dropping 90 percent from current levels. He calls it a classic bubble.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/19/bitcoin ... warns.html

He also poses an interesting question:

Boockvar sees the collapse coming in tandem as interest rates rise around the globe. He blames central banks, including the Federal Reserve, for the cryptocurrency craze due to their easy money policies that were designed to ease the effects of the global financial crisis.

"You have to wonder if we never heard of quantitative easing, would there have been cryptocurrencies?" Boockvar asked rhetorically in Thursday's interview.

Once the cryptocurrency market cracks, he contends, investor attitudes toward risk assets will change. According to Boockvar, the stock market could see collateral damage, but it would all be based on psychology — not on anything that's fundamentally wrong with the economy.


"I wouldn't be surprised if over the next year it's down to $1,000 to $3,000," he added.


I know people have stated that if it drops to $6k they plan on buying. I wonder if the same holds true for 3k? For 1k?


So what. He missed out, and I think you did too.If you missed out, you have no creds in this arena.

I sold you you a couple of oz of siver last year. Actually, a sold you a lot, didn't I?

Bubbles can last a long time. My investment cost me $2500 bucks. If Bitcoin dies (which) it won't, so what. Now I have over $500K in the Bitcoin and other coins. I don't trade and I'm not selling. If it goes to zero, I don't care. Life goes e

How's that silver working out for you? My silver just loses money, but I'm a still a buyer.I just bought 225 oz of Engelhard Prospectors last week, from the most respected member on this website. Don't post crap about Bitcoin because you missed out. I'm a stacker too.
Last edited by Bucketeer on Sun Jan 21, 2018, edited 3 times in total.
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dae2dae
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby dae2dae » Sun Jan 21, 2018

Bucketeer wrote:
jcz1 wrote:I can't believe a certain someone hasn't posted this already...

90% of bitcoin's value could get wiped out, Wall Street veteran Peter Boockvar warns

Boockvar, a CNBC contributor, contends bitcoin is in danger of dropping 90 percent from current levels. He calls it a classic bubble.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/19/bitcoin ... warns.html

He also poses an interesting question:

Boockvar sees the collapse coming in tandem as interest rates rise around the globe. He blames central banks, including the Federal Reserve, for the cryptocurrency craze due to their easy money policies that were designed to ease the effects of the global financial crisis.

"You have to wonder if we never heard of quantitative easing, would there have been cryptocurrencies?" Boockvar asked rhetorically in Thursday's interview.

Once the cryptocurrency market cracks, he contends, investor attitudes toward risk assets will change. According to Boockvar, the stock market could see collateral damage, but it would all be based on psychology — not on anything that's fundamentally wrong with the economy.


"I wouldn't be surprised if over the next year it's down to $1,000 to $3,000," he added.


I know people have stated that if it drops to $6k they plan on buying. I wonder if the same holds true for 3k? For 1k?


You missed out, and you have no creds in this arena.

I sold you you a couple of oz of siver last year. Actually, a sold you lot, didn't I?

Bubbles can last a long time. My investment cost me $2500 bucks. If Bitcoin dies (which) it won't, so what. Now I have over $500K in the Bitcoin and other coins. I don't trade and I'm not selling. If it goes to zero, I don't care.

How's that silver working out for you? My silver just loses money, but I'm a still a buyer.I just bought 225 oz of Engelhard Prospectors last week, from the most respected member on this website. I'm a stacker. Don't post crap about Bitcoin because you missed out. I'm a stacker too.

...
“Paper is poverty, it is only the ghost of money, and not money itself.” Thomas Jefferson
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby Tractor Man » Sun Jan 21, 2018

Past results are a certain indication of future performance? :lol:

"Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd." --Voltaire

Edit: Oops, slight mis-quote in the original.
Last edited by Tractor Man on Mon Jan 22, 2018, edited 1 time in total.
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Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd. Voltaire

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Bucketeer
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby Bucketeer » Mon Jan 22, 2018

You might be right, I'm HODLing. I've got nothing to lose. Don't forget that I'm a Bear. It is a sunk investment.
If Bitcoin goes down the tube, it doesn't matter. HODL.

Man oh man, it is cold down here in Florida. My heat pump has been running all night. Burr!

https://www.accountingtools.com/articles/what-is-a-sunk-cost.html
https://study.com/academy/lesson/sunk-costs-definition-examples.html
Last edited by Bucketeer on Mon Jan 22, 2018, edited 1 time in total.
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Tractor Man
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby Tractor Man » Mon Jan 22, 2018

Bucketeer wrote:You might be right, I'm HODLing. I've got nothing to lose.


Yes, we know. You've been very clear. But everyone else has to make decisions based on today's conditions and future outcomes are considered important.
The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence. Charles Bukowski
Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd. Voltaire

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SilverDoge
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby SilverDoge » Mon Jan 22, 2018

Tractor Man wrote:
Bucketeer wrote:You might be right, I'm HODLing. I've got nothing to lose.


Yes, we know. You've been very clear. But everyone else has to make decisions based on today's conditions and future outcomes are considered important.


What's that old saying? If I had a nickel for every time....

We should update it. If I had a bitcoin for every time some Wall Street Banker said it was going to fail, I'd be a bitcoin billionaire (cue Bitcoin Billionaire YT video)!

These Wall Streeters often want to make a name for themselves. There is a lot of competition on Wall St to stand out and get new $$$ coming in. One way to stand out is to make a splashy headline like Bitcoin will drop to $1,000. Do we see any evidence behind this theory? No. Merely a claim that bitcoin is a bubble and it will return from where the "parabola" started. Well, in that case, it needs to go back to $0.10. Why stop at $1,000? The true parabola started from about a dime in 2010. But we all know it isn't going back to $0.10. Why? Because there is a level of support that many people will never sell regardless the current USD price.

People like to say, "do you honestly believe the bankers & politicians will let bitcoin take over their monopolies on money and power? You're a fool." My response is it is now inevitable, and I think they have it backwards. Do you honestly believe, the cypherpunks, libertarians, honest money crowd will let a bunch of banksters and corrupt politicians kill bitcoin? Not a chance. I do NOT care if bitcoin goes back to $1000.

Now if you can't honestly make that same statement, then you have too much of your wealth already invested in crypto. People looking for the easy, fast money are the first ones to bow out of this space. If you don't get into crypto for the right reasons, then you will easily get emotionally beaten, likely sell for losses, and then blame crypto for your own recklessness. There is a reason that the very first post in the bitcoin beginner's thread answers the WHY of crypto before talking about how, when, what, or where because that is the most important question above all else.
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby christostock » Mon Jan 22, 2018

I have a question that may or may not be answered here???

With BTC Spot down - how much price difference would you sell your BTC for
lets use $10500 as BTC spot
would $11000 make you sell 1??
would $10700 make you sell 1??
would spot plus 3% or 4% or 5% convince you to sell?
Or would you need more than any of those numbers?
Just trying to understand better what value people put on their holdings
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby joefro » Mon Jan 22, 2018

I would always be willing to sell at a price that would allow me to buy more BTC than I sold after covering withdrawl and transaction fees, and the value of my time. I would immediately re-buy BTC with the proceeds from the sale.


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