Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Please put all polls here.

Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Poll ended at Tue Dec 12, 2017

Hell Yes!
25
46%
Yes.
7
13%
Maybe.
5
9%
No.
9
17%
Hell No!
2
4%
Don't care/ Don't Know
6
11%
 
Total votes: 54

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SilverDoge
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby SilverDoge » Mon Jan 22, 2018

christostock wrote:I have a question that may or may not be answered here???

With BTC Spot down - how much price difference would you sell your BTC for
lets use $10500 as BTC spot
would $11000 make you sell 1??
would $10700 make you sell 1??
would spot plus 3% or 4% or 5% convince you to sell?
Or would you need more than any of those numbers?
Just trying to understand better what value people put on their holdings


Of course I can only speak for me personally, but the question itself has underlying factors. If a person here is willing to give me $11k, and I have USD sitting at GDAX where I can immediately buy 1 BTC at $10.5k I would do it. I just made $500 and have not lost any BTC. At some point, that gap isn't worth my time though. I'm not going to go through that hassle for $30, and all the tax consequences it entails. For me, it would probably be about $300 minimum. If I don't have the USD on GDAX and I have to transfer funds from my bank account and wait 7 days, then the gap must be larger to account for the variation, volatility and risk that I have to buy back the BTC higher. I would say about 8% minimum. But at that point, most people wouldn't do the trade anyway so it is a moot point.

This is another reason why I advise people to not put in more than they can afford to completely lose. That creates strong hands during these dips. And if a person has already cashed out their initial buy-in, it is really just a free roll at that point as well. If you put yourself in a position where you don't need to sell for any particular reason, then you can hold easier, or merely sell the highs (and buy back the lows if desired), or the ultimate ideal: spend your crypto for goods and services when you want to in the future.
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tdtwedt
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby tdtwedt » Tue Jan 23, 2018

The vast majority of digital coin offerings are scams, warns CEO of a crypto services firm

CoinList CEO Andy Bromberg says investors should be careful of fraud when buying into initial coin offerings.

Most ICOs are "low-quality," he warns.


https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/23/majorit ... m-ceo.html

:pop:
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BarsandStars
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby BarsandStars » Tue Jan 23, 2018

tdtwedt wrote:The vast majority of digital coin offerings are scams, warns CEO of a crypto services firm

CoinList CEO Andy Bromberg says investors should be careful of fraud when buying into initial coin offerings.

Most ICOs are "low-quality," he warns.


https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/23/majorit ... m-ceo.html

:pop:


I know you're trolling but come on, man. Can you at least do better than a CNBC article? :lol:
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SilverDoge
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby SilverDoge » Tue Jan 23, 2018

tdtwedt wrote:The vast majority of digital coin offerings are scams, warns CEO of a crypto services firm

CoinList CEO Andy Bromberg says investors should be careful of fraud when buying into initial coin offerings.

Most ICOs are "low-quality," he warns.


https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/23/majorit ... m-ceo.html

:pop:


Hey look, we (kinda) agree on something. :pop:

I know a guy that just got scammed on a recent ICO: Benebit

Most ICOs aren't necessarily scams, but they simply won't be profitable or don't make any sense as it relates to crypto.
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silverpv
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby silverpv » Tue Jan 23, 2018

christostock wrote:I have a question that may or may not be answered here???

With BTC Spot down - how much price difference would you sell your BTC for
lets use $10500 as BTC spot
would $11000 make you sell 1??
would $10700 make you sell 1??
would spot plus 3% or 4% or 5% convince you to sell?
Or would you need more than any of those numbers?
Just trying to understand better what value people put on their holdings



This happens quite often in international markets. I recently signed up with one because I'm a dual citizen and can take advantage of the spread. Buying in the US and selling outside can differ upto 20%. When you factor in currency conversion its actually even more advantageous at up to 23%+. So right now, the rate for eth is 1000 it sells on international exchange for $1100. Do I go through the trouble of arbitrage? That depends. I usually wait for the spread to become wider. Also, I don't do it with BTC because its slow and expensive, i also can't do it on Lightning or all that becuase it needs to settle fast. You have to use it with something you can immediately replace if you are trying to do an arbitrage game.

Else, i think for most folks here, its just sell when you need to sell because as SilverDoge mentioned, stronger hands keeps the price floor stable. If you don't need it, save it until you do or if you want to do something else with the funds because the tax man wants his cut. With international its a little easier because govt's are a little more relaxed. So I do buy in US and then sell in international and then have money transferred to me US - US as a currency conversion play pocketing the 20% and buying BTC back or in my case ETH.

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tdtwedt
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby tdtwedt » Thu Feb 01, 2018

Cryptos Tumble After India Says It Will "Take All Measures To Eliminate" Their Use

“The government does not consider cryptocurrencies legal tender or coin and will take all measures to eliminate use of these crypto-assets in financing illegitimate activities or as part of the payment system,” Finance Minister Arun Jaitley told lawmakers in New Delhi on Thursday. However, while blasting bitcoin, the Indian finmin announced that India would embrace blockchain "The government will explore use of blockchain technology proactively for ushering in digital economy."


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02- ... er-or-coin
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cmiller17363
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby cmiller17363 » Thu Feb 01, 2018

tdtwedt wrote:Cryptos Tumble After India Says It Will "Take All Measures To Eliminate" Their Use

“The government does not consider cryptocurrencies legal tender or coin and will take all measures to eliminate use of these crypto-assets in financing illegitimate activities or as part of the payment system,” Finance Minister Arun Jaitley told lawmakers in New Delhi on Thursday. However, while blasting bitcoin, the Indian finmin announced that India would embrace blockchain "The government will explore use of blockchain technology proactively for ushering in digital economy."


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02- ... er-or-coin

The irony that something must be eliminated because "they" don't approve but will make their own digital currency that they can control. But THAT one will be good to go, y'all. Have no fear, the government approves! :thumbup:
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SilverDoge
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby SilverDoge » Thu Feb 01, 2018

tdtwedt wrote:Cryptos Tumble After India Says It Will "Take All Measures To Eliminate" Their Use

“The government does not consider cryptocurrencies legal tender or coin and will take all measures to eliminate use of these crypto-assets in financing illegitimate activities or as part of the payment system,” Finance Minister Arun Jaitley told lawmakers in New Delhi on Thursday. However, while blasting bitcoin, the Indian finmin announced that India would embrace blockchain "The government will explore use of blockchain technology proactively for ushering in digital economy."


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02- ... er-or-coin

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fredzoyt
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby fredzoyt » Thu Feb 01, 2018

Ushering in a digital economy? That's scary! Revelation 13 slowly coming to pass.
http://www.the-highway.com/ultimate_questions.html
http://www.gotquestions.org/way-of-salvation.html
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Phil. 2:10 so that at the name of Jesus EVERY KNEE WILL BOW, of those who are in heaven and on earth and under the earth,

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Fabio
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby Fabio » Thu Feb 01, 2018

Trolls gonna troll and of course MSM gonna MSM.

:pop:
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SilverDoge
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby SilverDoge » Sat Feb 03, 2018

Is bitcoin about to die? Let's see if we've ever been here before....

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7uqa54/lesson_history_of_bitcoin_crashes/

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Brick's
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby Brick's » Sat Feb 03, 2018

I have not looked but, what kind of volume sell off are we looking at? Is it even 5% of total shares on the market of all Cryptos? 10%? 20%? 25%? I'm guessing at the very least strong Cryptos are in strong hands already and staying there.
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scottcped
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby scottcped » Sat Feb 03, 2018

I've been told that my understanding of crypto currency is stuck in the "old school way of thinking. Can someone please help me with the following questions:
1. Ok say I was going to buy a BTC. How do I purchase one? I reside in the USA. So I'm assuming I need to use USD?
2. How do I pay for regular ordinary stuff with BTC?
3. When I want to sell it and convert back to physical cash. How do I do that?
4. Is there any commission or discount that needs to be paid in order to convert USD to BTC and back again?
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SilverDoge
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby SilverDoge » Sat Feb 03, 2018

scottcped wrote:I've been told that my understanding of crypto currency is stuck in the "old school way of thinking. Can someone please help me with the following questions:
1. Ok say I was going to buy a BTC. How do I purchase one? I reside in the USA. So I'm assuming I need to use USD?
2. How do I pay for regular ordinary stuff with BTC?
3. When I want to sell it and convert back to physical cash. How do I do that?
4. Is there any commission or discount that needs to be paid in order to convert USD to BTC and back again?


Nearly all of these questions are answered on the first page of the Bitcoin (crypto) beginners thread, specifically the 4th post in: http://www.bullionstacker.com/viewtopic.php?f=108&t=28780

Quick hitters:
1) Coinbase / GDAX
2) See this post: http://www.bullionstacker.com/viewtopic.php?f=108&t=28780#p549942
3) Coinbase / GDAX
4) Not if you use GDAX with limit orders
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scottcped
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby scottcped » Sat Feb 03, 2018

I just went to the Bitcoin website, and now there is Bitcoin Cash in addition to the Bitcoin Core. Because the Bitcoin Core was rendered unusable. So what's to prevent the Bitcoin Cash to be rendered also unusable? When was the last time the USD was rendered unusable? When was the last time Ag and Au were rendered unusable? How do you access your BTC if you can't log on to the internet?
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scottcped
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby scottcped » Sat Feb 03, 2018

SilverDoge wrote:
scottcped wrote:I've been told that my understanding of crypto currency is stuck in the "old school way of thinking. Can someone please help me with the following questions:
1. Ok say I was going to buy a BTC. How do I purchase one? I reside in the USA. So I'm assuming I need to use USD?
2. How do I pay for regular ordinary stuff with BTC?
3. When I want to sell it and convert back to physical cash. How do I do that?
4. Is there any commission or discount that needs to be paid in order to convert USD to BTC and back again?


Nearly all of these questions are answered on the first page of the Bitcoin (crypto) beginners thread, specifically the 4th post in: http://www.bullionstacker.com/viewtopic.php?f=108&t=28780

Quick hitters:
1) Coinbase / GDAX
2) See this post: http://www.bullionstacker.com/viewtopic.php?f=108&t=28780#p549942
3) Coinbase / GDAX
4) Not if you use GDAX with limit orders


Thanks!!!
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SilverDoge
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby SilverDoge » Sat Feb 03, 2018

scottcped wrote:I just went to the Bitcoin website, and now there is Bitcoin Cash in addition to the Bitcoin Core. Because the Bitcoin Core was rendered unusable. So what's to prevent the Bitcoin Cash to be rendered also unusable? When was the last time the USD was rendered unusable? When was the last time Ag and Au were rendered unusable? How do you access your BTC if you can't log on to the internet?


This is the consequence of Roger Ver and company holding the rights to bitcoin.com unfortunately. Roger wants Bitcoin Cash (BCH) to become the dominant Bitcoin (BTC) and confuses new people in this space with his tripe. He does this by calling bitcoin "bitcoin core" and saying it has been rendered unusable, and that bitcoin cash (or as I say B-cash) is the "real" bitcoin. This is patently false. Bitcoin fees are going down, and the mempool is clearing as SegWit and Lightning Networks (layer 2 & 3 solutions) are being actively adopted. Bitcoin Cash is an alt-coin like the hundreds of others. One can choose to use it, or bitcoin as they desire. If you can't use the internet, you can't actively use any crypto until it is back on.

This is the real bitcoin website: https://bitcoin.org

See this funny video for more about Roger:
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scottcped
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby scottcped » Sat Feb 03, 2018

SilverDoge wrote:
scottcped wrote:I just went to the Bitcoin website, and now there is Bitcoin Cash in addition to the Bitcoin Core. Because the Bitcoin Core was rendered unusable. So what's to prevent the Bitcoin Cash to be rendered also unusable? When was the last time the USD was rendered unusable? When was the last time Ag and Au were rendered unusable? How do you access your BTC if you can't log on to the internet?


This is the consequence of Roger Ver and company holding the rights to bitcoin.com unfortunately. Roger wants Bitcoin Cash (BCH) to become the dominant Bitcoin (BTC) and confuses new people in this space with his tripe. He does this by calling bitcoin "bitcoin core" and saying it has been rendered unusable, and that bitcoin cash (or as I say B-cash) is the "real" bitcoin. This is patently false. Bitcoin fees are going down, and the mempool is clearing as SegWit and Lightning Networks (layer 2 & 3 solutions) are being actively adopted. Bitcoin Cash is an alt-coin like the hundreds of others. One can choose to use it, or bitcoin as they desire. If you can't use the internet, you can't actively use any crypto until it is back on.

This is the real bitcoin website: https://bitcoin.org

See this funny video for more about Roger:


Thanks for the information, mate! :D
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Bucketeer
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby Bucketeer » Sat Feb 03, 2018

I think Bitcoin Cash has value as a currency, and Bitcoin has value as an asset. Roger Ver is muddying the waters for his personal net worth.
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SilverDoge
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby SilverDoge » Sat Feb 03, 2018

Brick's wrote:I have not looked but, what kind of volume sell off are we looking at? Is it even 5% of total shares on the market of all Cryptos? 10%? 20%? 25%? I'm guessing at the very least strong Cryptos are in strong hands already and staying there.


This is a very interesting question that can't be exactly known.

First, there is an estimated 2.5 - 4.0 million coins "lost" indefinitely* http://fortune.com/2017/11/25/lost-bitcoins/

Second, in 2012 it was estimated that 78% of bitcoins were not circulating. I don't have updated numbers for 2018 though. https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2012/10/78-percent-of-bitcoin-currency-stashed-under-digital-mattress-study-finds/

Third, if we look at daily trading volume here: https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/30d?c=e&t=b we see that a range for most days of between 150,000 - 400,000 BTC daily volume on the larger exchanges. This doesn't exactly sync up with CoinMarketCap trading volume though. There must be some discrepancy. But here is a key point to remember. Exchanges aren't trading bitcoin around every time you make a buy or sell order. They are merely updating their software and crediting your account. It is only when you withdraw from the exchanges that the bitcoin actually "circulates" and moves. You can see the top 100 bitcoin wallet addresses here: https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html Now many of these are cold wallets of the exchanges or miners. You can see the first in and last in dates of all of these, as well as the first out and last out on many of these wallets too. Notice that of the top 100 wallets, 56 of these do not have a first out or last out date. Meaning that they haven't moved anything out. Interestingly wallets 200-300 have even more BTC that have never moved. These are the true believers and HODL'ers. You see, the vast majority of those who have REAL money in this space aren't trading it for piddly USD profits day trading. They are the believers that this is a new paradigm. Can you blame them?

* Unless quantum computers hack some of those lost addresses one day and bring some percent of these bitcoins "back from the dead"
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