Brick's wrote:I have not looked but, what kind of volume sell off are we looking at? Is it even 5% of total shares on the market of all Cryptos? 10%? 20%? 25%? I'm guessing at the very least strong Cryptos are in strong hands already and staying there.
This is a very interesting question that can't be exactly known.
First, there is an estimated 2.5 - 4.0 million coins "lost" indefinitely* http://fortune.com/2017/11/25/lost-bitcoins/
Second, in 2012 it was estimated that 78% of bitcoins were not circulating. I don't have updated numbers for 2018 though. https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2012/10/78-percent-of-bitcoin-currency-stashed-under-digital-mattress-study-finds/
Third, if we look at daily trading volume here: https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/30d?c=e&t=b we see that a range for most days of between 150,000 - 400,000 BTC daily volume on the larger exchanges. This doesn't exactly sync up with CoinMarketCap trading volume though. There must be some discrepancy. But here is a key point to remember. Exchanges aren't trading bitcoin around every time you make a buy or sell order. They are merely updating their software and crediting your account. It is only when you withdraw from the exchanges that the bitcoin actually "circulates" and moves. You can see the top 100 bitcoin wallet addresses here: https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html Now many of these are cold wallets of the exchanges or miners. You can see the first in and last in dates of all of these, as well as the first out and last out on many of these wallets too. Notice that of the top 100 wallets, 56 of these do not have a first out or last out date. Meaning that they haven't moved anything out. Interestingly wallets 200-300 have even more BTC that have never moved. These are the true believers and HODL'ers. You see, the vast majority of those who have REAL money in this space aren't trading it for piddly USD profits day trading. They are the believers that this is a new paradigm. Can you blame them?
* Unless quantum computers hack some of those lost addresses one day and bring some percent of these bitcoins "back from the dead"