Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Please put all polls here.

Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Poll ended at Tue Dec 12, 2017

Hell Yes!
25
46%
Yes.
7
13%
Maybe.
5
9%
No.
9
17%
Hell No!
2
4%
Don't care/ Don't Know
6
11%
 
Total votes: 54

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Brick's
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby Brick's » Sat Feb 03, 2018

TY Doger:

This was exactly my point. Less than 25% of bitcoins even circulating back in 2012. Kept in strong hands.

I'll even take my question to the next level and ask what kind of sell off volume are we seeing 5%, 10%, or even 25% of the CIRCULATING volume of all Cryptos? I doubt even 25%. The next number I'd like to see is the value of the total shares sold into the drop. Again, I'd venture a small percentage of the market cap.

People can't believe it's a new paradigm? Disney is developing their own coin called Dragonchain. If Disney is doing it, it's real. LOL. Actually, the corporate king of fantasy and movie entertainment may not be the best example to say it's "real" but you get my gist.
“Rationality belongs to the cool observer, but because of the stupidity of the average man, he follows not reason, but faith, and the naive faith requires necessary illusion and emotionally potent oversimplifications which are provided by the myth-maker to keep ordinary person on course.”

― Reinhold Niebuhr, Moral Man and Immoral Society: Study in Ethics and Politics

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Bucketeer
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Location: Warily watching the herd.

Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby Bucketeer » Sat Feb 03, 2018

Brick's wrote:I have not looked but, what kind of volume sell off are we looking at? Is it even 5% of total shares on the market of all Cryptos? 10%? 20%? 25%? I'm guessing at the very least strong Cryptos are in strong hands already and staying there.


SilverDoge wrote:You can see the top 100 bitcoin wallet addresses here: https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html Now many of these are cold wallets of the exchanges or miners. You can see the first in and last in dates of all of these, as well as the first out and last out on many of these wallets too. Notice that of the top 100 wallets, 56 of these do not have a first out or last out date. Meaning that they haven't moved anything out. Interestingly wallets 200-300 have even more BTC that have never moved. These are the true believers and HODL'ers. You see, the vast majority of those who have REAL money in this space aren't trading it for piddly USD profits day trading. They are the believers that this is a new paradigm. Can you blame them?


Bingo - it's not the price that matters. Paypal started the paradigm, but Bitcoin put it in action.

Satoshi wanted to create a currency, but Bitcoin was adopted as an asset. Serious, long-term Gold and Silver stackers don't check the price everyday, and neither do Bitcoiners. If you believe in the asset, all that matters is building your stack.

It is hard to believe that Bitcoin will ever be a currency. Bitcoin Cash might fill the void, despite what you think about Roger Ver.

Carefully selected assets will always beat a big checking account. Even mediocre assets will outperform. It takes a little bit of work to monitor your assets, but your currency is losing value every day, because of inflation and currency trading.

Checking and debit accounts are only useful for paying bills and getting cash. I used to maintain a large balance in my checking account. It made me feel secure, until the IRS froze my account. They seized over $20,000, and left me $900. It was all my fault, and we worked it out. They were professionals, but if it can happen to me, it can happen to you.

They didn't freeze my safety deposit box or my brokerage account, FYI.

If you need a lot of currency, don't "loan" it to the bank. Stash it somewhere. If you have traditionally carried a large balance in your bank account, it can be a bit unnerving to get used to holding a much smaller amount. You'll get used to it.

When Hurricane Irma passed through here, the power in my city was out for 38 hours. All the ATMs were out of service. I went to the bodega right around the block, and I was out of cash. The owner gave me an IOU because I've been a customer for a long time. He told me that he had to turn down a lot of sales because he didn't know them well enough, or he didn't trust them.

Keep some cash, but buy some assets.
Gentlemen prefer Engelhard.

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SilverDoge
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Location: Kansas

Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby SilverDoge » Mon Feb 05, 2018

When we look at this chart, we are seeing a normal wave pattern of bitcoin behavior. It is easy to forget this in the day to day grind. If we update the most recent numbers, the latest drop is about 63% from the peak, which isn't all that bad considering the recent 556% rise in the last run. As always, the question is when have we bottomed out, and when will the next market bull begin? While I don't have those exact answers, as long as one is long BTC, and believes this pattern will continue, there isn't too much to worry about as long as you've not put in more wealth than you can afford to lose.

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tdtwedt
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Location: South Mississippi

Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby tdtwedt » Mon Feb 05, 2018

Texas takes the lead on states' cryptocurrency crackdowns

On Friday, Texas' securities board issued its fourth emergency cease-and-desist order in just over a month on a cryptocurrency company.

The orders follow a roughly one-month undercover investigation of cryptocurrency investment programs, said Joseph Rotunda, director of the enforcement division at the Texas State Securities Board.

Other states have not yet taken as dramatic steps against cryptocurrency fraud.


https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/05/texas-t ... downs.html
There are more ways than one to skin a cat.

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SilverDoge
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby SilverDoge » Mon Feb 05, 2018

tdtwedt wrote:Texas takes the lead on states' cryptocurrency crackdowns

On Friday, Texas' securities board issued its fourth emergency cease-and-desist order in just over a month on a cryptocurrency company.

The orders follow a roughly one-month undercover investigation of cryptocurrency investment programs, said Joseph Rotunda, director of the enforcement division at the Texas State Securities Board.

Other states have not yet taken as dramatic steps against cryptocurrency fraud.


https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/05/texas-t ... downs.html

We don't mind when lawmakers "crack down" on scams like BitConnect. But when the media falsely reports every possible negative narrative whether it is true or not.... well....
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I can still afford a couple DogeCoins though
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jcz1
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Location: USA

Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby jcz1 » Mon Feb 05, 2018

There was an article last week that talked about how the globalist elites at Davos thought that the current times feel like 2006, just before the last crash.

That should give us a year or two before it happens, so hopefully this isn't the beginning of it. Also, I would guess that a financial system crash would help the cryptos, which is obviously not happening right now.

The world's elite are partying like it's 2006, and that should probably scare us. Top business and political leaders, who met last week in the quaint ski chalet town of Davos, Switzerland, couldn't stop talking about the booming global economy, record stock markets and President Trump's tax cuts. They toasted the good times with bottles of bourbon that cost several thousand dollars each.

But there is something unnerving about all of this: 2006 was followed by 2008, the worst financial crisis of just about everyone's lifetime. Some of the wisest minds at Davos said it feels eerily similar right now, and that's not comforting.

“The biggest concern I have is no one thinks there's a chance of a recession this year or next,” Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein said. “The conventional wisdom is usually wrong.”

Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff said, “I’ve never seen it so complacent. I mean never.”

Citigroup chief executive Michael Corbat noted, “My biggest concern is the market is ignoring all the risks.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/won ... a62b6521d5

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tdtwedt
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby tdtwedt » Wed Feb 07, 2018

Most cryptocurrencies will crash to zero, Goldman Sachs says

Most cryptocurrencies are likely to fail with their value falling to zero, Goldman Sachs said in a note.
The investment bank compared the current market to the "internet bubble of the late 1990s."


https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/07/most-cr ... -says.html
There are more ways than one to skin a cat.

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SilverDoge
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby SilverDoge » Wed Feb 07, 2018

tdtwedt wrote:Most cryptocurrencies will crash to zero, Goldman Sachs says

Most cryptocurrencies are likely to fail with their value falling to zero, Goldman Sachs said in a note.
The investment bank compared the current market to the "internet bubble of the late 1990s."


https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/07/most-cr ... -says.html


It appears GS wanted to enter into a bitcoin long position sub $5,000 and missed the boat when the bottom only hit $5,800. Solution 1: say that China has banned bitcoin. Oh wait, we've done that 8 times in the last year already ...hmmm, okay.
Solution 2: Convince lawmakers that bitcoin is only used by terrorist or pedophiles. Oh wait, CFTC chairman just said we need to be open and respectful of crypto and not stifle innovation. Damn. Hmmm, okay.
Solution 3: Just claim that everything is going to crash to zero. I'm sure that will work. Everybody blindly listens to the most trusted name in finance who got billions of taxpayer bailout money, rightttttttt?

I assume tdtwedt is also waiting to buy the dip, but we know his entry price is about $5 so he will be waiting until infinity.
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joefro
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby joefro » Wed Feb 07, 2018

tdtwedt wrote:Most cryptocurrencies will crash to zero, Goldman Sachs says

Most cryptocurrencies are likely to fail with their value falling to zero, Goldman Sachs said in a note.
The investment bank compared the current market to the "internet bubble of the late 1990s."


https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/07/most-cr ... -says.html



This is likely true, only because there are THOUSANDS of alt coins out there now and the majority of them are scams or completely worthless in terms of utility. So I would agree that most of these coins will eventually go to zero. However, I believe the overall market cap of crypto will continue to rise... so it just depends on how you define "most cryptocurrencies".

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MaxGravy
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Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby MaxGravy » Wed Feb 07, 2018

Goldman Sachs :lol:

July 2013:
Goldman Sachs Scandal
On July 24th it was reported, A Bizarre Goldman Sachs Aluminum Moving Scheme Has Allegedly Cost US Consumers $5 Billion In The Past 3 Years :- Goldman Sachs has been involved in an elaborate plan to move around aluminum in a way that has inflated market prices. The report states that every time an American consumer buys a product containing aluminum, they pay a price that has been affected by this maneuver. Sources told The New York Times that in total the plan has cost American consumers more than $5 billion over the last three years,


September 2014:
Goldman Sachs: Gold will drop $200 by end of year
Why Goldman's gold man recommends shorting gold. On Thursday Goldman Sachs said it's sticking to its original forecast of gold at $1,050 an ounce by the end of the year.


January 2015:
Goldman Sachs' Worst Predictions of 2014
Despite Goldman's role in the financial crisis, and obnoxious statements such as CEO Lloyd Blankfein's claim that the bank is doing "God's work," its sterling reputation has remained in tact. Goldman's predictions are the closest thing to a crystal ball in the financial media, and they regularly draw headline coverage. However, they are often dead wrong. Here are some of the bank's worst predictions from 2014.


July 2015:
‘Goldman Sachs has engineered every major market manipulation since the Great Depression’
The bank’s unprecedented reach and power have enabled it to turn all of America into a giant pump-and-dump scam, manipulating whole economic sectors for years at a time, moving the dice game as this or that market collapses, and all the time gorging itself on the unseen costs that are breaking families everywhere — high gas prices, rising consumer credit rates, half-eaten pension funds, mass layoffs, future taxes to pay off bailouts. All that money that you’re losing, it’s going somewhere, and in both a literal and a figurative sense, Goldman Sachs is where it’s going: The bank is a huge, highly sophisticated engine for converting the useful, deployed wealth of society into the least useful, most wasteful and insoluble substance on Earth — pure profit for rich individuals.


September 2015:
Goldman Sachs: Oil could hit $20
Forget $40 a barrel oil. Prices could plummet to $20 as a massive supply glut persists until the end of next year. That's the view of Goldman Sachs, which published an oil report Friday headlined "Lower for even longer."


November 2015:
Goldman's Incredibly Depressing Predictions for 2016
In a research note out this week, Goldman Sachs’ top strategists predict that stocks will once again disappoint next year.


December 2015:
EUR/USD: Goldman Sachs Predicts Crash in Euro to Dollar Exchange Rate
Goldman Sachs Forecasts Parity in Euro to Dollar


February 2016:
Goldman’s (frequently incorrect) predictions for the price of gold
But when it comes to gold, Goldman has an awful knack for getting it wrong at the absolute worst times.


February 2016:
How to react when a Goldman Sachs backs away from its big calls so early in the year
There are investment calls, and then there are the “total recalls.” And Goldman Sachs has done something that approaches the latter, informing its investors that five of its biggest trades this year are not going to work.


February 2016:
5 Times Goldman Sachs Got It Wrong in 2015
Here are just a few examples of when Goldman Sachs' analysts got it wrong in 2015: Microsoft, Gold, China, S&P 500, Internal Test Formts


March 2016:
Goldman Sachs probed in alleged rigging of Treasury market
Investigators in the fraud division of the Justice Department have obtained chats and e-mails from Goldman that appear to implicate the company in manipulating the price of Treasury bonds, according to two sources familiar with the investigation.


May 2016:
Parsing the PR lies of Goldman Sachs
Consider this example from Goldman Sachs: “We are pleased to put these legacy matters behind us. Since the financial crisis, we have taken significant steps to strengthen our culture, reinforce our commitment to our clients and ensure our governance processes are robust.” This is Goldman’s rhetorical attempt to cleanse itself of the massive fraud it committed in selling tens of billions of dollars in worthless mortgage investments to its clients, contributing to the crash of our economy in 2008.


July 2016:
Goldman Sachs Has Some Terrible News for U.S. Investors
On Friday, in his most recent note on the market, Goldman Sachs’ top U.S. stock market strategist predicted the rest of the year in the market will be a serious disappointment.


November 2016:
Everything Goldman Sachs predicts for 2017
“Valuation levels for equities and especially bonds remain highly elevated by historical standards, so expected returns appear to be low across most asset classes,”


December 2016:
Goldman Sachs to pay $120 million over attempted ISDAFIX benchmark manipulation
Goldman Sachs, which was also accused by the CFTC of making false reports on the benchmark rate, will settle the case without admitting or denying the charges.


July 2017:
Goldman’s Traders Turn In Worst First Half of Blankfein’s Reign
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. traders turned in their worst first-half performance since Lloyd Blankfein rose from that business to become chief executive officer in 2006.

Revenue from trading stocks and bonds in the first six months of 2017 tumbled 10 percent, dropping to the lowest level since before Blankfein took over from Hank Paulson 11 years ago. Second-quarter revenue from the fixed-income unit plunged 40 percent.


August 2017:
Goldman Sachs Technical Analyst Predicts Bitcoin’s ‘Top’ Is $4800
Goldman Sachs Analyst Who Called Bitcoin’s ‘Top’ Two Months Tries to Predict Again


October 2017:
Goldman Sachs predicts only minor boost from Trump’s tax cuts
Goldman Sachs, the Wall Street bank that supplied some of Trump’s top economic advisers, keeps telling its clients to expect a “modest” impact from the Trump-GOP tax plan.
I'm clearly not very bright.

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bigjohn
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Location: Western Washington

Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby bigjohn » Wed Feb 07, 2018

:clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap:
OPEN A COINBASE ACCOUNT AND BOTH OF US WILL GET $10
https://www.coinbase.com/join/593592a00b8e899741fd9dec

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tdtwedt
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Location: South Mississippi

Re: Is Bitcoin in a bubble?

Postby tdtwedt » Fri Aug 31, 2018

This chart could explain why the bitcoin bubble hasn't fully burst

"Every time bitcoin was in the news, be it positive or negative, the price went up accordingly," van der Burgt said in a phone interview with CNBC on Wednesday.

Van der Burgt said the correlation between Google searches for bitcoin and the cryptocurrency's price was almost a "perfect match" until the end of 2017. He said it might not be a coincidence that was also when bitcoin futures markets were introduced.

"My take on it is that because of the introduction of futures, that might have deflated the bubble before it got to a level where it might burst completely," he said.

Separate research published in May by researchers at the San Francisco Federal Reserve also found bitcoin's price dive was linked to the launch of a futures markets.


https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/31/this-ch ... burst.html
There are more ways than one to skin a cat.


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