Coronavirus...AKA COVID-19

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shinnosuke
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Re: Coronavirus...AKA COVID-19

Postby shinnosuke » Fri Feb 14, 2020

Let’s talk about the effects of the virus on the economy. China has quarantined about one-third of their population. Besides wondering about how they get food to eat when they’re stuck in their apartments, a quarantine order means businesses have no customers. That hurts the average shop owner.

I work for a company in the auto industry. We are a first tier supplier to almost every vehicle manufacturer in the world. Our production lines, which are located all over Greta’s green earth, depend on a steady stream of components coming out of the Far East.

Guess what. Several components we source from China will run out in a couple weeks. Our only hope is that some other supplier runs out of critical components before us so our company is not blamed for shutting down the automakers’ lines. Perhaps as the virus continues to spread, even in the US, demand for new autos will drop and the lack of new production will not be so noticeable. However, if automakers can’t make, that’s a lot of idled business. That’s a lot of hamburger joints near car factories with no customers.

Why is the stock market so high in the face of a likely stall out in the economy? Why haven’t gold and silver started to shine as a way to preserve wealth. I think the stock market phenomenon is finally on its last gasp. I’d like to be wrong.
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Purple and Gold
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Re: Coronavirus...AKA COVID-19

Postby Purple and Gold » Fri Feb 14, 2020

I'm thinking that some good will come out of this and US companies will start producing their own parts and pieces,, we dont need that cheap Chinese crap any way
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shinnosuke
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Re: Coronavirus...AKA COVID-19

Postby shinnosuke » Fri Feb 14, 2020

Purple and Gold wrote:I'm thinking that some good will come out of this and US companies will start producing their own parts and pieces,, we dont need that cheap Chinese crap any way


China makes more than cheap Walmart items. They have progressed enough in some areas to be quite competitive technologically. Besides my auto industry job, I’m in private equity. There are strong, viable investment opportunities all over China.

Is gold “cheap?” China produces a lot of gold, and rare earth minerals, and computer equipment that almost everyone reading this thread owns. The problem with China is its lack of liberty, not its nationality. I had a neighbor who left China decades ago. He hated the Communist regime and loved living in the US. He was a brilliant biochemist.

But you’re right about the virus scare leading to some companies leaving China. They might go to Vietnam though. That place is a rising star. We own a women’s fashion company there. I thought my heart would stop when I saw the pictures of the beautiful women modeling their lines of elegant fashion.
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Purple and Gold
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Re: Coronavirus...AKA COVID-19

Postby Purple and Gold » Fri Feb 14, 2020

Speaking of the car industry, I worked for BASF corp, which produces TDI by the railroad tanker, the stuff that is used to make auto dashes and interiors. The Chinese BASF plants make the same, so I guess the other worldwide Chem plants will have to pick up the slack now.
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skylersfriend
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Re: Coronavirus...AKA COVID-19

Postby skylersfriend » Fri Feb 14, 2020

a quote from Geopolitical Futures Memo posted today;

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/

they are running a great special for a yearly subscription........ :thumbup:

By: GPF Staff

Worst-case scenarios. Global health experts are starting to roll out some pretty alarming forecasts for just how far the coronavirus epidemic can spread. On Friday, for example, a prominent World Health Organization adviser said as much as two-thirds of the global population could ultimately get the bug. (There were 64,460 confirmed cases as of Friday morning, including 1,384 deaths.) The modeling that produced the estimate was based on data on the high transmissibility of the virus, as well as factors like its long incubation period and delayed appearance of symptoms – factors that are likely to complicate containment efforts. The estimate is full of assumptions and caveats, and it’s incongruous with the “mere” 218 cases that have been reported outside mainland China so far. It’s best to read these sorts of worst-case scenarios as just that, so that policymakers know the outer bounds of what possibilities they need to prepare for. During the 2014 Ebola outbreak, for example, 11,000 people were killed, despite well-reasoned predictions that death tolls would approach 1 million. Either way, the biggest economic and political effects of the coronavirus will result from fear – and moves by various players to exploit the crisis for strategic ends – not directly from the virus itself. From that perspective, highly-publicized predictions of the apocalypse can matter quite a bit.

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Silversaving
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Re: Coronavirus...AKA COVID-19

Postby Silversaving » Fri Feb 14, 2020

Yup, we're completely f*cked. Still got idiots out there saying it's no worse then the flu. Still got people saying it will never really affect us here. This is going to be one of the worst events we will see in our lifetime. I'm praying for humanity as a whole. The media is desperately trying to keep people calm with pretty lies, but this will be ugly...and not just for China.
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Re: Coronavirus...AKA COVID-19

Postby tdtwedt » Fri Feb 14, 2020

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AGhead
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Re: Coronavirus...AKA COVID-19

Postby AGhead » Fri Feb 14, 2020

Silversaving wrote:Yup, we're completely f*cked. Still got idiots out there saying it's no worse then the flu. Still got people saying it will never really affect us here. This is going to be one of the worst events we will see in our lifetime. I'm praying for humanity as a whole. The media is desperately trying to keep people calm with pretty lies, but this will be ugly...and not just for China.

:lol: First sentence cracked me up...Brutal honesty! (but nasty language :oops: )
While yours is the most negative outlook I've seen yet, I am leaning to concur.
I pray for God's mercy.
Proverbs 27:17 "As iron sharpens iron, so a friend sharpens a friend."

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Silversaving
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Re: Coronavirus...AKA COVID-19

Postby Silversaving » Fri Feb 14, 2020

AGhead wrote: :lol: First sentence cracked me up...Brutal honesty! (but nasty language :oops: )
While yours is the most negative outlook I've seen yet, I am leaning to concur.
I pray for God's mercy.


Sorry about the language.....seemed most appropriate for the situation. I've spent a good amount of time on Hong Kong forums and watched a lot of videos from inside China. It's certainly not contained in any way and spreading fast. 2% (I've seen estimates go up as 5% though) mortality rate and likely to hit 75-80% of the world population. Most are still only watching the evening news and taking their words as gospel. I understand the object of governments is to keep people from panicking, but at some point people need to know what's heading their way.
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loosechange808
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Re: Coronavirus...AKA COVID-19

Postby loosechange808 » Fri Feb 14, 2020

Silversaving wrote:Yup, we're completely f*cked. Still got idiots out there saying it's no worse then the flu. Still got people saying it will never really affect us here.


LOL. A few weeks ago health officials from our state government said not to worry, the threat is low. Today the governor came out and said it's a "serious concern". In a couple of weeks after it becomes a full-blown pandemic he's gonna say "Now it's okay to worry."

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AGhead
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Re: Coronavirus...AKA COVID-19

Postby AGhead » Fri Feb 14, 2020

In 4 years, the evil Nazis, led by one psychopath, murdered 6,000,000 Jews (God's chosen people). :(
I can easily imagine that many or more people on this planet killed by a virus.
Proverbs 27:17 "As iron sharpens iron, so a friend sharpens a friend."

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grantwoodisgold
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Re: Coronavirus...AKA COVID-19

Postby grantwoodisgold » Fri Feb 14, 2020

You Can Catch The Coronavirus More Than Once, And The 2nd Time May Be Deadlier

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DRP270
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Re: Coronavirus...AKA COVID-19

Postby DRP270 » Fri Feb 14, 2020

Regarding the often quoted 2% death rate. That is number of deaths divided by the number of cases which is a flawed measure. Consider from this site that takes the number of deaths and divides by the number of resolved cases some of which are deaths. This is a much better measure and is at 16% currently but has been as high as 20%. I suspect the change in the criteria to register as a case probably (but not sure yet) is going to further lower this percentage so IMO the previous 20% is probably closer to the truth. The worldometer site has a ton of information that you could spend hours going through :oops: .
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cmiller17363
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Re: Coronavirus...AKA COVID-19

Postby cmiller17363 » Fri Feb 14, 2020

DRP270 wrote:Regarding the often quoted 2% death rate. That is number of deaths divided by the number of cases which is a flawed measure. Consider from this site that takes the number of deaths and divides by the number of resolved cases some of which are deaths. This is a much better measure and is at 16% currently but has been as high as 20%. I suspect the change in the criteria to register as a case probably (but not sure yet) is going to further lower this percentage so IMO the previous 20% is probably closer to the truth. The worldometer site has a ton of information that you could spend hours going through :oops: .

Kinda like inflation is struggling to meet the 2% goal of the Fed? :shifty: we all know it's BS but they keep saying it.
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grantwoodisgold
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Re: Coronavirus...AKA COVID-19

Postby grantwoodisgold » Fri Feb 14, 2020

no hope




jacked up
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AuMax
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Re: Coronavirus...AKA COVID-19

Postby AuMax » Sat Feb 15, 2020

THE COVID-19 CORONAVIRUS AND ITS ECONOMIC IMPACT (UPDATED 14TH FEB.)

The charts on this page track the spread of the virus in China and its economic impact. Most include daily data, which we are updating every working day. This page also contains links to our latest analysis on the impact of the outbreak in China and around the world.


https://www.capitaleconomics.com/the-ec ... ronavirus/
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Re: Coronavirus...AKA COVID-19

Postby InfleXion » Sat Feb 15, 2020

I'm assuming I will get the virus at some point. My goal is not to get it when everyone else does so that I don't have to compete for care. I'm not going to live my life in fear. As always I will face the now, not worry about the future or regret the past.
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AGhead
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Re: Coronavirus...AKA COVID-19

Postby AGhead » Sat Feb 15, 2020

The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most severe pandemic in recent history. It was caused by an H1N1 virus with genes of avian origin. Although there is not universal consensus regarding where the virus originated, it spread worldwide during 1918-1919. In the United States, it was first identified in military personnel in spring 1918. It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States.

Mortality was high in people younger than 5 years old, 20-40 years old, and 65 years and older. The high mortality in healthy people, including those in the 20-40 year age group, was a unique feature of this pandemic. While the 1918 H1N1 virus has been synthesized and evaluated, the properties that made it so devastating are not well understood. With no vaccine to protect against influenza infection and no antibiotics to treat secondary bacterial infections that can be associated with influenza infections, control efforts worldwide were limited to non-pharmaceutical interventions such as isolation, quarantine, good personal hygiene, use of disinfectants, and limitations of public gatherings, which were applied unevenly.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resour ... -h1n1.html

My granny and great granny told us stories of churches and schools shut down. We are way out in the country and they depended on neighbors sharing trips to town for supplies and would leave them at the gates. Communication was limited to only hollering at each other from distances. Our local cemeteries have many tombstones of babies that died during that time. Over 7,000 died here in Arkansas.
Proverbs 27:17 "As iron sharpens iron, so a friend sharpens a friend."

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agnostic
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Re: Coronavirus...AKA COVID-19

Postby agnostic » Sat Feb 15, 2020

It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to open your mouth and remove all doubt. ... Honest Abe


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