The Bitcoin 20/20 Hindsight Calculator

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SilverDoge
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The Bitcoin 20/20 Hindsight Calculator

Postby SilverDoge » Mon Aug 07, 2017

Imagine a tool where you could ask how you would have performed if you had invested $300 per month in bitcoin for the past 1.5 or 2.5 years. Well now there is an easy way to do it. Check out this website:

https://for-bitcoin.com/calculator/

You can input daily, weekly, monthly data and it spits out the result. For example...

If you had started on 01JAN16 with $300/month with a simply buy & hold strategy, you would have invested $6,000 total so far, and would have 8.5834 bitcoins, currently valued at $23,480.

Go back one more year to 01JAN15, and you would have invested $9,600 and would have 22.4441 bitcoins, currently valued at $61,397.80.

Fun little tool.
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silverpv
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Re: The Bitcoin 20/20 Hindsight Calculator

Postby silverpv » Mon Aug 07, 2017

SilverDoge wrote:Fun little tool.


If you are into torturing yourself.. :lol:

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Townes
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Re: The Bitcoin 20/20 Hindsight Calculator

Postby Townes » Mon Aug 07, 2017

Over twice the value of gold (nearly 3 X) :shock: Too late to get in now?

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SilverDoge
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Re: The Bitcoin 20/20 Hindsight Calculator

Postby SilverDoge » Tue Aug 08, 2017

Townes wrote:Over twice the value of gold (nearly 3 X) :shock: Too late to get in now?


Here is my position on this. It depends on your time horizon, goals and risk tolerance.

For any given 18 month period in the life of bitcoin, if you had used this X dollars per month strategy and held, you would at least be breaking even... and that is worst case scenario, i.e. buying at the very top of the bubble in late 2013 and continuing to buy during the slow collapse. Starting in 2014, that shortens to any 6 month period. And we all know the potential upside, but I'm just highlighting the downside here.

Now I doubt that bitcoin will hit $500,000 in 3 years like Jon McAfee thinks, but $10,000 is realistic IMHO. Along the way you will see drops. Bitcoin could go below $2,000 again. If/when that happens, the long terms guys on here will be buying, and the short term guys not used to the volatility will panic sell. So you just need to determine which camp you are in and act accordingly.

Here was a part of my response when Big John started this thread: http://www.bullionstacker.com/viewtopic.php?f=108&t=28104

Everybody who enters into crypto thinks they are too late since 2011. EVERYBODY. In 2013 I thought I was too late. Long John thought he was too late 2 months ago. In 2 years, somebody else is going to be asking about crypto for the first time and that first post is going to say, "I know I already missed the boat on crypto, but". This will finally end when all new users are kids becoming adults and their only excuse was they weren't born yet.
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SilverDoge
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Re: The Bitcoin 20/20 Hindsight Calculator

Postby SilverDoge » Tue Aug 08, 2017

silverpv wrote:
SilverDoge wrote:Fun little tool.


If you are into torturing yourself.. :lol:


Perhaps. But as I tell my kids, a smart person learns from their mistakes, a wise person learns from the mistakes of others. This tool gives a very easy to use visualization of what historically can be done. People might read about all the crypto threads and think it seems too hard or confusing to be an early adopter in this crypto space, but the reality is just the opposite. Creating a Coinbase account is less work than opening a bank account at Wells Fargo (which takes mounds of paperwork and over an hour the last time I tried it). You can then set up an automated payment into bitcoin and hold in Coinbase's "vault" or your own hardware wallet (preferred). It isn't that hard.

So if a person can easily see the overall performance, maybe they can learn from history and benefit. Again, bitcoin isn't necessarily meant to be an investment, as per Satoshi's original vision, but until mass adoption occurs, the price will continue to climb relative to fiat currencies.
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Long John
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Re: The Bitcoin 20/20 Hindsight Calculator

Postby Long John » Tue Aug 08, 2017

I'm not into torturing myself. I know full well I would be better off if I'd been in Bitcoin from the beginning and put a few thousand dollars into it at that time. Damn, there I went and tortured myself.

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xelint
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Re: The Bitcoin 20/20 Hindsight Calculator

Postby xelint » Tue Aug 08, 2017

Does it calculate how much you would have lost in the Mt. Gox fraud :pop: :D
Get refunds on things you already purchased when the price changes :wave:

https://earny.app.link/Gm3jMgbK7P

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SilverDoge
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Re: The Bitcoin 20/20 Hindsight Calculator

Postby SilverDoge » Tue Aug 08, 2017

xelint wrote:Does it calculate how much you would have lost in the Mt. Gox fraud :pop: :D


It sure does, if you want to go that route. So let's say you were wise enough to see the opportunity of bitcoin early on, and starting buying earlier than almost everybody... 01JAN12, purchasing $300 per month and holding. Unfortunately you weren't wise enough to hold your own bitcoins, and you stored 100% of your stash on Mt.Gox.

Between 01JAN12 and the collapse where you lost everything in FEB 2014, you would have spent $7,800, and had 597 bitcoins. And you lost it all. Learning from your mistake, you continue to put the same $300 into bitcoin, and then hold it yourself until today. Now your $$$ spent increases to a total of $20,400 (which includes your sunk $7,800), and you would now have 28.84 bitcoins worth $78,914. So even after losing everything after 2 years and 2 months of initial smart investing, you would still have more than tripled your money (nearly 4x).

Of course, if you only had 50% of your funds on Mt.Gox then you would have over 300 bitcoins today. I'll let you do the math.
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Re: The Bitcoin 20/20 Hindsight Calculator

Postby Bucketeer » Tue Aug 08, 2017

SilverDoge wrote:Now I doubt that bitcoin will hit $500,000 in 3 years like Jon McAfee thinks, but $10,000 is realistic IMHO. Along the way you will see drops. Bitcoin could go below $2,000 again. If/when that happens, the long terms guys on here will be buying, and the short term guys not used to the volatility will panic sell. So you just need to determine which camp you are in and act accordingly.


This isn't rocket science.

It is about "time in the market", not timing the market.
Gentlemen prefer Engelhard.

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SilverDoge
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Re: The Bitcoin 20/20 Hindsight Calculator

Postby SilverDoge » Tue Nov 28, 2017

Townes wrote:Over twice the value of gold (nearly 3 X) :shock: Too late to get in now?


Now over 7 times the value of gold (1 ounce).
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Re: The Bitcoin 20/20 Hindsight Calculator

Postby Silversaving » Tue Nov 28, 2017

SilverDoge wrote:Now I doubt that bitcoin will hit $500,000 in 3 years like Jon McAfee thinks, but $10,000 is realistic IMHO.


Only took 3 months for that $10,000 call. Not sure McAfee's $500,000 in 3 years is such a far fetched idea anymore. I can easily envision $100,000 at any rate.
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SilverDoge
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Re: The Bitcoin 20/20 Hindsight Calculator

Postby SilverDoge » Wed May 09, 2018

From DEC 2017 to today, bitcoin has gone up to $20k and back down to $6k and now sits just over $9k. So for someone who just entered the market in the last 6 months who used a steady DCA, surely they must be down a ton of money right? Well using the hindsight calculator, starting on 01DEC17 and buying with $500 on the first of the month for the past 6 months, a person would have spent $3,000 on BTC, would have a total of 0.3129 BTC, currently valued at $2,837. Only a loss of $163, or a -5.4% return. That isn't all that bad considering bitcoin has dropped over 70% from its ATH.
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Long John
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Re: The Bitcoin 20/20 Hindsight Calculator

Postby Long John » Thu May 10, 2018

SilverDoge wrote:From DEC 2017 to today, bitcoin has gone up to $20k and back down to $6k and now sits just over $9k. So for someone who just entered the market in the last 6 months who used a steady DCA, surely they must be down a ton of money right? Well using the hindsight calculator, starting on 01DEC17 and buying with $500 on the first of the month for the past 6 months, a person would have spent $3,000 on BTC, would have a total of 0.3129 BTC, currently valued at $2,837. Only a loss of $163, or a -5.4% return. That isn't all that bad considering bitcoin has dropped over 70% from its ATH.

Very interesting. The way that's possible is that the Dec. 1 (less than $10K) and Jan. 1 (less than $14K) purchases avoided the ATH of more than $19K, which came on Dec. 17. It was surreal, the way BTC increased by nearly $10K in the space of 16 days in December. Those who entered the market in mid-December suffered most. Likewise those who exited then (in part or entirely) and bought back during the crash benefited most.

But as you demonstrated, those who ignored the wild gyrations of the market and plugged away with automatic DCA buys did not suffer too badly, and their holdings may still increase significantly in value. I've been buying $250 worth of BTC per month on Coinbase since last fall and sliding it offline every few months. I think there were really only 3 buys when it cost significantly more than it's worth now. Of course I bought bigger chunks in the crash, too, and it's up almost 50% from that.

Up from the crash, a different way of looking at it. :lol: Some like to see it as only down from the ATH.


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