Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Discussion of all things crypto and blockchain.
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Brick's
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Brick's » Thu Nov 29, 2018

Fusion wrote:Today and tomorrow I will be an MC at the American Banker BLOCK FS Conference in NYC
<snip>
A truly decentralized global platform goes against CENTRALIZED government and wealth...so it’s going to take a little time haha. If you have the stomach and the patience it is going to be a fun ride. That is all...for now.
https://www.americanbanker.com/conference/block-fs-2018


Now how cool is that where you literally have your finger on the pulse of the industry regarding blockchain and the American banking system? This is but one of the reasons I love this community. We have great people in so many places. I truly look forward to your future posts on the subject.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby tdtwedt » Fri Nov 30, 2018

'I come to bury Bitcoin, not to praise it': UBS

It's time to "bury" bitcoin, UBS' Paul Donovan says.

It was "obvious" that the bitcoin rally would end badly for people not "protected by any kind of regulation and got sucked into the process," he says.


https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/30/i-come- ... t-ubs.html

:pop:
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Fri Nov 30, 2018

tdtwedt wrote:'It's time to "bury" bitcoin, UBS' Paul Donovan says.

It was "obvious" that the bitcoin rally would end badly for people not "protected by any kind of regulation and got sucked into the process," he says.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/30/i-come-to-bury-bitcoin-not-to-praise-it-ubs.html

You can do a better posting than this. It is hardly newsworthy, especially coming from Paul Donovan and his desire for Bitcoin regulations. Bitcoin is trustless.

Quora: What does it mean that Bitcoin is trustless?
https://www.quora.com/What-does-it-mean-that-Bitcoin-is-trustless?

One of the most important characteristics of Bitcoin is that it is trustless by design, and therefore does not require 3rd party regulations or regulators. Sorry Paul, the Bitcoin galaxy does not require the services of any "trusted authority", including you or UBS.

What follows are the first 4 paragraphs from Wikipedia, about UBS.

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
This article is about the investment bank and financial services company. For other uses, see UBS (disambiguation).

UBS Group AG is a Swiss multinational investment bank and financial services company founded and based in Switzerland. Co-headquartered in the cities of Zürich and Basel, it maintains a presence in all major financial centers as the largest Swiss banking institution in the world. UBS client services are known for their strict bank–client confidentiality and culture of banking secrecy.

UBS was founded in 1862 as the Bank in Winterthur alongside the advent of the Swiss banking industry. During the 1890s, the Swiss Bank Corporation (SBC) was founded, forming a private banking syndicate that expanded aided by Switzerland's international neutrality. The Bank of Winterthur merged with Toggenburger Bank in 1912 to form the Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) and grew rapidly after the Banking Law of 1934 codified Swiss banking secrecy. Following decades of market competition between the SBC and UBS, the two merged in 1998 to create a single company known solely as "UBS". During the early 2000s, the commensurate rise of UBS and Credit Suisse established a legally-sanctioned oligopoly on Swiss private market activity. After UBS managed heavy losses during the 2008 financial crisis with an asset relief recovery program, it was hit with the 2011 rogue trader scandal resulting in a US$2 billion trading loss. In 2012 the bank reoriented itself around wealth management and limited its sell side operations.

Apart from private banking, UBS provides wealth management, asset management, and investment banking services for private, corporate, and institutional clients with international service. UBS manages the largest amount of private wealth in the world, counting approximately half of the world's billionaires among its clients. Despite its trimming of sell side operations, UBS is among the world's nine "Bulge Bracket" investment banks and is considered a global primary market maker. The bank also maintains numerous underground bank vaults, bunkers, and storage facilities for gold bars around the Swiss Alps and internationally. Partly due to its banking secrecy, it has been at the center of numerous tax avoidance investigations undertaken by U.S., French, German, Israeli, and Belgian authorities. UBS operations in Switzerland and the United States were respectively ranked first and second on the 2018 Financial Secrecy Index. Its large market share makes UBS a multi-state systemically important and universal bank.

As of 2017, UBS is the 11th largest bank in Europe with a market capitalization of $64.5 billion.[13] It has over CHF 3.2 trillion in assets under management (AUM), approximately CHF 2.8 trillion of which are invested assets.[14] In June 2017, its return on invested capital was 11.1%, followed by Goldman Sachs' 9.5%, and JPMorgan Chase's 9.2%.[15] In late 2016, UBS established a blockchain technology research lab in London to advance its cyber security and encryption of client activities. Based on regional deal flow and political influence, UBS is considered one of the "biggest, most powerful financial institutions in the world".[16][17] The company's capital strength, security protocols, and reputation for discretion has yielded a substantial market share in banking and high level of brand loyalty. Alternatively, it receives routine criticism for facilitating tax noncompliance and off-shore financing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UBS

I am far from being an "anti-bankster". I think that local community banks provide a valuable service and great utility to their customers. It is the criminal actions of international, money center banks like UBS and their ilk that require even greater regulations of, and protections from, their current business practices.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Brick's » Fri Nov 30, 2018

Bucketeer wrote:<snip> local community banks provide a valuable service and great utility to their customers. It is the criminal actions of international, money center banks like UBS and their ilk that require even greater regulations of, and protections from, their current business practices.


Well said, Sir! :clap:
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Fusion » Fri Nov 30, 2018

What a great conference. It ended with Dr. Irving Wladawsky-Berger from MIT talking about the future of Blockchain.
They’ll have videos posted next week of each session if anyone sees a topic they want to hear.
https://www.americanbanker.com/conferen ... 018/agenda
I spent 30 minutes with Alan Lane, CEO of Silvergate Bank. Fascinating bank and story. Just under $2Bn in assets these guys are a great story. I told him if he ever opens an office in the East I will run it for him hahaha
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Fri Nov 30, 2018

Brick's wrote:
Bucketeer wrote:<snip> local community banks provide a valuable service and great utility to their customers. It is the criminal actions of international, money center banks like UBS and their ilk that require even greater regulations of, and protections from, their current business practices.


Well said, Sir! :clap:


Thank you for the compliment Brick's. I believe that Paul Donovan is either incompetent, a liar, or a combination of both. Let's examine what Paul said.
It's time to "bury" bitcoin, UBS' Paul Donovan says.

It was "obvious" that the bitcoin rally would end badly for people not "protected by any kind of regulation and got sucked into the process," he says.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/30/i-come-to-bury-bitcoin-not-to-praise-it-ubs.html

.
In my previous rebuttal, I provided a link to an explanation about the "trustless" nature of Bitcoin. That link explains why Bitcoin and the introduction of a public ledger was designed to eliminate regulations and regulators. This is a feature of Bitcoin, not a bug or oversight.

This trustless feature is basic Bitcoin 101, so obviously Paul doesn't understand this, or he is lying. Given that Paul is the Global Chief Economist at UBS, I am hesitant to call him a liar, so let's examine his competency. What follows is a brief biography of Paul, from the UBS Website.

Paul joined UBS Wealth Management in August 2016, and is the Global Chief Economist. He is a member of the Global Investment Committee, a UBS Opinion Leader, a sponsor of UBS Speak Up and a UBS Pride Ally. Paul is responsible for developing and presenting the UBS economic outlook, marketing the view around the world. He started at UBS Investment Bank as an intern in 1992, and was Global Economist. He has an MA in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from Oxford University, and an MSc in Financial Economics from the University of London. He is an Honorary Fellow of St Anne's College Oxford, appears regularly in print and broadcast media, and is the author of several books (all available from Amazon.com).
https://www.ubs.com/global/en/about_ubs/follow_ubs/ubs-economic-insights/paul_donovan.html

I would have expected a person in Paul's position to possess a Doctorate. It is surprising that all of his educational majors are in the imprecise sciences of philosophy and economics. I expected to see at least an undergraduate degree in accounting, finance, or mathematics. Economic Finance is not Finance.

In late 2016, UBS established a blockchain technology research lab in London to advance its cyber security and encryption of client activities. If UBS has developed a blockchain, I suspect that it incorporates a non-public ledger. but regardless, Paul is certainly capable of understanding the basic concepts of Bitcoin and the use of a "public ledger".

That said, the only logical conclusion would be that Paul is lying when he claims that Bitcoin owners are without protection. The protection is incorporated in the code, and the nature of the protection prevents compromise by regulations or regulators, either public or private.

His agenda is obvious when he stated: "I come to bury Bitcoin, not to praise it". I also take great exception to Paul's comment that <people> "got sucked into the process".

Nobody got "suckered" into Bitcoin, except for the people that watched the daily price increases on mainstream news sources like CNBC and wanted in because of the fear of missing out. Bitcoin is neutral - it never suckered anyone.

The process for a beginner to buy Bitcoin is lengthy, daunting, and difficult to understand. Holding, sending, or receiving Bitcoin is fraught with danger until the owner understands the basic processes, which are best learned from experience, a sometimes costly teacher.

Some people that have posted in this topic have called me a "Bitcoin maximalist". That is mostly, but not completely true. I remember shortly after Bitcoin broke $1000, that the corresponding message traffic in this topic went thru the roof, mostly from newbs.

I am Bearish on most things, and I've studied herd behaviors for a long time. No matter if we're talking tulips, dot.coms, or Bitcoin, there are two characteristics common to a strong bull run. The first is that most bull runs end badly for the "late-stage" players. The second is that the late-stage bulls turn into sheep, and usually shear themselves financially at the worse possible time.

I digress and my apologies. In closing, I can only think it was a slow news day at CNBC for them to publish Paul's lies. What is troubling is not only does CNBC have a large audience that actually believes his comments, but that those same comments turned up in this topic. I expected better.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby SilverDoge » Sun Dec 02, 2018

I don't think the bottom is quite in yet, but we're getting closer.

Peaks and Valleys.png
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Sun Dec 02, 2018

I can foresee a time in the not so distant future when Bitcoin will trade at 2 different prices. One price will be the futures price (CME/NASDAQ), the other will be the cash price for physical delivery (Coinbase, Gemini).

These differences could be significant. My understanding is that the recent price increase from $3448 was primarily demand-driven. I have heard that Coinbase was at some point quoting 10 day delivery times for Bitcoin because of the lack of physical supply. Not enough sellers, sorry folks!

What will be interesting is when Bitcoin ETFs eventually become available - and they will. Those that require physical holdings on a 1 to 1 basis will significantly drive-up the cash price of Bitcoin. If any of the ETFs are not 100% secured by physical holdings, they may become one of the most risky assets available.

Silver, Gold, and Oil are physical deliverable products for settlement, yet because of an unknown supply and the seeming ability for unlimited shorting, the true free-market prices of these products are unknown.

The CME Bitcoin contracts are cash-settlement only, no physical acceptance or delivery is allowed. I haven't read the NASDAQ prospectus, so I don't know know if it is a cash settlement only-market.

Bitcoin has a fixed but unrealized total supply, and a dwindling current (ongoing) supply. The mining reward will drop by 50% in mid-2020.

For those with a long-term perspective, the future of Bitcoin is bright.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby cmiller17363 » Mon Dec 03, 2018

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/g ... FA5576A6EF

How many miners does it take to maintain the blockchain? Couldn't 2 do it?
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Mon Dec 03, 2018

BitcoinExchangeGuide: Federal Reserve Says 2018 Bear Market Was Caused By CME’s Bitcoin Futures Offering.
https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/federal-reserve-says-2018-bear-market-was-caused-by-cmes-bitcoin-futures-offering/
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Mon Dec 03, 2018

How many miners does it take to maintain the blockchain? Couldn't 2 do it?

Technically yes, realistically no. I'll look into the subject and see if I can provide a more complete and relevant answer for you.

The article below is from last March, and looks at mining costs through the world. The price of Bitcoin at that time was approximately $10,000. While the article does provide a glimpse of the geographic variability in mining costs, it is significantly flawed because the cost-model is built upon the use of a single Antminer S9, operating alone (not in a mining pool).

A single S9 would probably be unprofitable even if it was a member of a pool.

Bitcoin: New Study Looks at the Cost to Mine BTC Across the Globe.
https://news.bitcoin.com/new-study-looks-at-the-cost-to-mine-btc-across-the-globe/?utm_campaign=Push+Notifications&utm_medium=notification&utm_source=OneSignal+Push

My personal experience has taught me to highly question any Bitcoin articles from CNBC, Seeking Alpha, and MarketWatch (formerly CBS MarketWatch). These particular organizations are more concerned with attracting eye-balls instead of presenting facts.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Mon Dec 03, 2018

“Bitcoin has no owner, no authority that can decide on its fate. It is owned by the crowd, its users. And it now has a track record of several years, enough for it to be an animal in its own right. Its mere existence is an insurance policy that will remind governments that the last object the establishment could control, namely, the currency, is no longer their monopoly. This gives us, the crowd, an insurance policy against an Orwellian future.”

– Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2018. Author of The Black Swan.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby mtforpar » Mon Dec 03, 2018

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitco ... 2018-12-03

Bitcoin is close to becoming worthless...
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Rik Bitter » Mon Dec 03, 2018

mtforpar wrote:https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-is-close-to-becoming-worthless-2018-12-03

Bitcoin is close to becoming worthless...


Imagine if you bought in the summer prior, near the top, (18K) and took the HODL advice all the crypto acolytes suggest.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Mon Dec 03, 2018

There were not too many long-term HODLers buying-in at the $18K level. The true HODLers were already in at 2 major price points, which was approximately $1000, and sub-$600.

Upon examination, there wasn't much of an exodus of Bitcoin movement from the upper 10% of wallet owners during the last run-up. 10 Bitcoins is the hurdle to be counted as a member of the upper 10%.

The overwhelming majority of Bitcoin HODLers are still HODLing, and sitting upon a very profitable investment.

Imagine buying Silver at the top in 2010, and "stacking" (HODLing) and/or continuing to increase the size of your stack during all this time, hoping to catch a bottom that is nowhere in sight.

The chart below shows where the real pain has occurred.

silver_20_year_o_usd.png
silver_20_year_o_usd.png (20.84 KiB) Viewed 328 times


My conclusion is that those who were "burned by Bitcoin" used extremely poor judgement in selecting their price entry and exit points (among other reasons).

Generally speaking, everybody on BS continues to buy silver, despite the evidence of a rigged market and extremely poor price performance. The price keeps falling and the stackers keep buying. That is insanity, and I'm guilty of it too.

In conclusion, most HODLers are way up in their investment in Bitcoin. Silver Stackers, that's another story.
Last edited by Bucketeer on Mon Dec 03, 2018, edited 8 times in total.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Mon Dec 03, 2018

NewsBTC: Bitcoin Price Analysis: Satoshi Nakamoto is “Alive”, BTC/USD Prices Steady.
https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/12/03/bitcoin-price-analysis-satoshi-nakamoto-btc-usd-prices/

I just posted this story, and I'm very skeptical. There is not enough evidence that Statoshi Nakamoto is alive, or even a real person. Never forget the scientific principle: extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby jcz1 » Mon Dec 03, 2018

I previously mentioned IBM's foray into blockchain. Amazon is now coming after IBM:

To that end, AMZN just announced that it will offer two Amazon Blockchain services through AWS: Amazon Quantum Ledger Database and Amazon Managed Blockchain. The managed blockchain product will allow users to create and manage scalable blockchain networks using the popular open source frameworks Hyperledger Fabric and Ethereum. Incidentally, Hyperledger is what IBM uses for its blockchain operations. The idea is that the new Amazon blockchain product allows end users to set up and manage a scalable blockchain network with just a few clicks of mouse and lines of code.

After you’ve built that blockchain network, Amazon’s other new service will allow you to dig into that data. Amazon’s Quantum Ledger Database will allow customers to replicate a copy of their Amazon blockchain network activity and dig into data to analyze it and see the transactions in the digital ledger.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-b ... 51970.html

Interesting, still no requirement for any cryptocurrency. :roll:

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Mon Dec 03, 2018

To understand how a blockchain works, you first need to understand Bitcoin. It is obvious that whomever you've quoted understands neither.

Any blockhead knows that a cryptocurrency is not required for a blockchain application. A cryptocurrency is a blockchain application.

Say hi to Paul Donovan and Jamie Dimon at the Bitcoin 101 Introductory class.
Last edited by Bucketeer on Mon Dec 03, 2018, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby SilverDoge » Mon Dec 03, 2018

Bucketeer wrote:NewsBTC: Bitcoin Price Analysis: Satoshi Nakamoto is “Alive”, BTC/USD Prices Steady.
https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/12/03/bitcoin-price-analysis-satoshi-nakamoto-btc-usd-prices/

I just posted this story, and I'm very skeptical. There is not enough evidence that Statoshi Nakamoto is alive, or even a real person. Never forget the scientific principle: extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.


I think there is about a 10% chance that Satoshi is the late Hal Finney

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hal_Finney_(computer_scientist)
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby SilverDoge » Mon Dec 03, 2018

jcz1 wrote:I previously mentioned IBM's foray into blockchain. Amazon is now coming after IBM:

To that end, AMZN just announced that it will offer two Amazon Blockchain services through AWS: Amazon Quantum Ledger Database and Amazon Managed Blockchain. The managed blockchain product will allow users to create and manage scalable blockchain networks using the popular open source frameworks Hyperledger Fabric and Ethereum. Incidentally, Hyperledger is what IBM uses for its blockchain operations. The idea is that the new Amazon blockchain product allows end users to set up and manage a scalable blockchain network with just a few clicks of mouse and lines of code.

After you’ve built that blockchain network, Amazon’s other new service will allow you to dig into that data. Amazon’s Quantum Ledger Database will allow customers to replicate a copy of their Amazon blockchain network activity and dig into data to analyze it and see the transactions in the digital ledger.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-b ... 51970.html

Interesting, still no requirement for any cryptocurrency. :roll:


Amazon QUANTUM ledger? Hmmm.... :shifty:
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