Bitcoins - fad or trend?

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Long John
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Long John » Wed Jan 17, 2018

People who profess to have no interest in owning Bitcoin but track it religiously in order to deliver the bad news when it drops = future Bitcoin owners.

I'm waiting for the exposé that Jamie Dimon has a substantial bag of Bitcoin. :lol:

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Silverkid » Wed Jan 17, 2018

Long John wrote:People who profess to have no interest in owning Bitcoin but track it religiously in order to deliver the bad news when it drops = future Bitcoin owners.

I'm waiting for the exposé that Jamie Dimon has a substantial bag of Bitcoin. :lol:


I believe with the announcement recently that he admitted bitcoin is money, there was also some evidence that pointed to his buying a large amount.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby SilverDoge » Thu Jan 18, 2018

Long John wrote:People who profess to have no interest in owning Bitcoin but track it religiously in order to deliver the bad news when it drops = future Bitcoin owners.

I'm waiting for the exposé that Jamie Dimon has a substantial bag of Bitcoin. :lol:


It is interesting. Here we see what happens when an "expert" has run out of arguments and is continually wrong: you tell the bitcoin bull to simply "piss off" on national TV:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-17/go-piss-brawl-breaks-out-cnbcs-fast-money-over-bitcoin

Why does bitcoin make people so emotional? Especially when they have no horse in the race. But in reality, we ALL have a horse in the race whether we like it or not. Even for the person who is aware of bitcoin and chooses not to participate... you have a horse in the race. The race is currency and wealth. Most people blindly back the horse that they are given by default: USD, yen, euro, RMB, etc. Some wise up and back the historical money horse: gold and silver. Others ask what will be the currency of the future: it just might be crypto.

Many people, if they're being objective, can look at all the facts and admit that it is possible that crypto has some non-zero percent chance of changing the way we think about money, and becoming the dominant form of currency in 10, 20, or 30 years. Many of us believe that one day the fiat currencies of the world will all spectacularly blow up in a "race to debase". If that happened today it would be catastrophic for global commerce and would lead to a depression that would make 2008 seem like a pleasant day at the beach. Sure, our gold and silver might 20x in purchasing power, but without a reliable economy how are we trading? But if we build the crypto solution now, and have the infrastructure, and merchant adoption necessary.... then when the fiat eventually collapses, the global economy can transition much easier to a digital crypto-based solution with only a serious recession, instead of an economic global meltdown. If you can envision this future, then seeing bitcoin dip below $10k looks like opportunity.
Last edited by SilverDoge on Thu Jan 18, 2018, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby SilverDoge » Thu Jan 18, 2018

tdtwedt wrote:
SilverDoge wrote:
tdtwedt wrote:Below 10K again.

:pop:


Where did you set your limit buy order at? $8530? or $26? ;)


$26

:duck:


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Long John
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Long John » Thu Jan 18, 2018

The market is climbing back. $167 billion in new money has poured back in since 24 hours ago. Bitcoin is up 17%, many alt-coins are up 30, 40, even 50% from a day ago. I thought people would be wary of alts, from the way they abandoned them much more than Bitcoin in the last day or so, but so far in this recovery it looks like I was wrong. They're buying 'em right back, not warily at all.

That deep dive is making considerable money for people who bought, rather than sold, near the worst of it. My project was not in a position to buy (it had no cash position), it just HODL'd. Personally, I added a little BTC and ETH and NEO, not at the bottom but within close enough proximity to make me content. I will be more content when it doubles. I think a lot of us here did the same. A lot? We are not that many! :lol:

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Long John
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Long John » Thu Jan 18, 2018

Bitcoin near $12K, up almost $3K from the bottom in one day.

Now there are a good many people who, if they bought at $9200, are perfectly content with $2700 profit per BTC in one day. So a selling session is quite possible. But maybe they'll want to be patient and double their money down the road.

oops, almost forgot the popcorn. :pop:

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby texmex66 » Thu Jan 18, 2018

I would like to know who bought a whole bitcoin or 2 at the lows. Anyone here?

:pop:

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby joefro » Thu Jan 18, 2018

Just got this message from a guy on Craiglist regarding the mining rigs I have for sale:

Considering the price of crytocurrency has crashed, you interested in selling any of your GPUs?

:lol: :lol: :lol:

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby SilverDoge » Thu Jan 18, 2018

texmex66 wrote:I would like to know who bought a whole bitcoin or 2 at the lows. Anyone here?

:pop:


My buys in the 32oz project are private, but let's just say I nearly caught the bottom with one.
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Long John
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Long John » Thu Jan 18, 2018

texmex66 wrote:I would like to know who bought a whole bitcoin or 2 at the lows. Anyone here?

I bought a bit more than 0.5 BTC for my HODL stash. I wasn't confident yesterday that it wouldn't go to $8K, the final line of defense (in this case) against a true crash. I'm more confident a day later, with the price at $11,850, but too late now.

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Silversummit » Thu Jan 18, 2018

my friend from work I got into cryptos put $15 K in on coinbase in the last 24 hours, but spread his money out across bitcoin and litcoin mostly with a couple ether also.
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Long John
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Long John » Thu Jan 18, 2018

We've talked about the South Korea and China news, and the climax of the Bitconnect scam, as contributing to the big sell-off. Another factor in that perfect storm, however, could be the expiration and settlement of the Bitcoin futures contracts. That coincided with the market crash, making big winners out of futures traders who shorted Bitcoin. The settlement price was $10,900, while the price when futures launched was about $2,500 higher. Again, perhaps coincidentally, the market rebounded after those contracts were settled.

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby highroller4321 » Thu Jan 18, 2018

Long John wrote:We've talked about the South Korea and China news, and the climax of the Bitconnect scam, as contributing to the big sell-off. Another factor in that perfect storm, however, could be the expiration and settlement of the Bitcoin futures contracts. That coincided with the market crash, making big winners out of futures traders who shorted Bitcoin. The settlement price was $10,900, while the price when futures launched was about $2,500 higher. Again, perhaps coincidentally, the market rebounded after those contracts were settled.


There is no coincidence about it. It was scheduled and factored in. Bitconnect was probably part of the distraction. :pop:

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby BarsandStars » Thu Jan 18, 2018

We should keep track of opex on these contracts and see if a pattern develops of selloffs heading into it.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Long John » Fri Jan 19, 2018

BarsandStars wrote:We should keep track of opex on these contracts and see if a pattern develops of selloffs heading into it.

I am out of my depth when it comes to the machinations of the Heavy Hitters. But it seems to me that if you are a Bitcoin whale or group of them, practiced in the art of triggering a selloff so you can buy back cheap the BTC you just sold, you might also be a big futures player and cash in again on the same selloff by shorting BTC. There seems to be a broad opinion that crypto is not hard for the Big Boys to maneuver to their liking. Or is that tinfoil-hat conspiracy stuff?

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Silversaving » Fri Jan 19, 2018

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SilverDoge
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby SilverDoge » Fri Jan 19, 2018

Silversaving wrote:Image


That M2 money supply is in a TOTAL bubble. I see tulips!

In reality, we need to compare crypto to global fiat currency and not just the USD as bitcoin and crypto are global. Given that chart, crypto would be a much smaller percentage.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby SilverDoge » Fri Jan 19, 2018

I came across this long summary of crypto by an institutional investor named John Pfeffer written only 4 weeks ago. I did not read the whole thing but I quickly skimmed and then read his conclusion. You can find the 26 page analysis here: https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/john-pfeffer/An+Investor%27s+Take+on+Cryptoassets+v6.pdf

Some choice quotes from the conclusion which are quite insightful:
If Bitcoin were to become that monetary store of value (and it currently appears to be the strongest contender by some margin), it could be worth USD 260,000 – 800,000 per BTC, i.e., 20 – 60x its current value. If one places a higher than ~5% chance of Bitcoin succeeding in this way, it is a rational and attractive investment for a long-term investor before considering other potential upsides stemming from payments and unit of account utility. Investing in other cryptoassets based on use cases other than monetary store of value appears less compelling.

Let’s be clear. This could all go substantially to zero for various reasons. Being ‘right’ in an investment with a high risk of failure but a highly positively-skewed distribution of potential outcomes is about getting the a priori probabilities right (as adjusted for new information as it arises) and getting position sizing right. Provided you accept that Bitcoin’s net expected value is positive, even marginally so, the right answer on position sizing isn’t zero. Nor of course is it 100% of assets. For those stuck at the step of whether or not to invest, the logical thing to do is to move past that point and focus on position sizing. If you’re more sceptical, invest less. If more confident, invest more. But even for the most sceptical, you might constructively ask yourself, why wouldn’t you invest USD 1? Well, rationally, you probably would. Now how about USD 2? Repeat until you get to your Bayesian optimal position size. Given the significant risk of loss, in most circumstances the correct answer is probably a long-term, buy-and-hold, unlevered investment of a low single-digit percentage of assets (at cost).

This could very easily turn into a stampede for the entrance and value could very credibly gap up to at least the low-end private-sector target of USD 1.5 trillion in a matter of months, with subsequent growth to the high-end private-sector target of USD 4.7 trillion happening more slowly over the course of two or three years. The potentially rapid move to USD 1.5 trillion would imply a BTC price of USD 112,000 based on the current number of BTC (potentially relevant given the short time frame being considered) or USD 86,000 fully-diluted.

The speed with which this move, especially the first leg of it, could happen is accentuated by the fact that Bitcoin ownership is concentrated; that most Bitcoin haven’t changed hands since the price was in the double digits; and that these owners have high conviction and high long-term BTC price expectations and have already weathered tremendous volatility for years without blinking. Fewer than perhaps 1 million BTC effectively circulate at all, and any new money will be forced to compete mostly for those, so the propensity for price to gap up as new institutional money flows in is high.

The second step is adoption by public institutions as a store of value and as a replacement of gold and foreign fiat in countries’ international reserves. Of course, this could take a very long time, even after the private sector has embraced and accepted it. Governments move slowly. Decision processes are political. On the other hand, as soon as one government is known to have bought its first Bitcoin into its reserves, we could see a second stampede for the entrance as national treasuries around the world realise they need to diversify at least some of their reserves into Bitcoin before all their rivals do or be left at a strategic disadvantage.


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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby satosan » Fri Jan 19, 2018

highroller4321 wrote:
Long John wrote:We've talked about the South Korea and China news, and the climax of the Bitconnect scam, as contributing to the big sell-off. Another factor in that perfect storm, however, could be the expiration and settlement of the Bitcoin futures contracts. That coincided with the market crash, making big winners out of futures traders who shorted Bitcoin. The settlement price was $10,900, while the price when futures launched was about $2,500 higher. Again, perhaps coincidentally, the market rebounded after those contracts were settled.


There is no coincidence about it. It was scheduled and factored in. Bitconnect was probably part of the distraction. :pop:


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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby natsb88 » Fri Jan 19, 2018

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