Bitcoins - fad or trend?

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Bucketeer
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Wed Nov 08, 2017

Long John wrote: To those who want no more than the Bitcoin they have, and never plan to use it anyway, it won't matter. But I think a lot of the market sees the opportunity to increase their holdings.


The majority of the Bitcoin market is, and has been Hodlers. We create the scarcity, and the lack of liquidity in Bitcoin.

That said, we create the (relative) price stability (and increases), by creating scarcity.
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Long John
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Long John » Wed Nov 08, 2017

Well, that didn't last long. Soared up to $7870 upon news of B2X being abandoned, then quickly dropped as low as $7070. As has been noted, some people were only in (or increased their positions) for the B2X airdrop and quickly jumped out with profits when it spiked. I'm almost glad I was too busy to do anything about it.

Anyway, recovered back above $7300 as there was a lot of buy support around $7K. Now the coast is clear for the time being, fork-wise, it will be interesting to see what the market will do. It's possible the disappointed B2Xers aren't done pulling out. I wouldn't mind a quiet spell or a slow rise. Who can complain, with BTC above $7000?

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby SilverDoge » Thu Nov 09, 2017

Long John wrote:Who can complain, with BTC above $7000?


No complaints here. My target price is still 10 x gold price. At that point I will trade 1 bitcoin for 10 ounces of gold. The question is will it happen this year or next year. I'm going to guess May 2018, but it could very well be March 2019 too. Maybe if gold dips below $1,200 it will happen sooner? ;)
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Bucketeer
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Thu Nov 09, 2017

SilverDoge wrote:Segwit2x is cancelled according to the twitter of Andreas & Charlie Shrem.

Announced here too: http://www.trustnodes.com/2017/11/08/segwit2x-called-off-bitcoin-will-not-hardfork

This is good news for sure!


I think there are several good things that might come from the cancellation. The first is, it removes an element of uncertainty for those people who are going to trade on the CME. The second thing is that I believe this will also help Bitcoin Cash in the long run.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby SilverDoge » Thu Nov 09, 2017

At some point, Chris Coney switched from using CoinMarketCap (CMC) to using OCFX https://onchainfx.com which I messed around with for 10 minutes and I love it. The only down side is that it only has 57 cryptos listed and therefore it doesn't have half my portfolio. Regardless, there are some cool features such as:

Y2050 Marketcap (implied)
The Y2050 Marketcap is the implied value of the total expected supply of an asset on Jan 1st 2050.
For example, the total exepcted supply of ZCash on Jan 1st 2050 is 20,941,047 ZEC. Thus, if the price today of 1 ZEC is $250, the Y2050 implied marketcap is $5.2B. The current marketcap, though, works out to about $520m since only 10% of the total eventual supply has been emitted as of September 2017.

Why do we do this?
The emission schedules (ie, how many tokens are released over time) can vary greatly from one asset to another. By normalizing to the expected supply when most existing coins have reached supply stability, an investor can better judge relative value today. If one asset has 100% of supply released today and is trading at $10, but another has 5% released and is trading at $100, the second asset will undergo 20x supply dilution over time, whereas the first asset will have no dilution. It's misleading to compare the market-capitalizations of assets today when their supplies change at very different rates over time; thus we extrapolate to the implied market-capitalization after most of the supply growth has taken place for all assets.

Vladimir Club
The Vladimir Club refers to owning 1% of 1% of an asset's eventual supply. For example, bitcoin's supply is fixed to 21,000,000 coins. Therefore, to be "in the Vladimir Club" for bitcoin requires:

21,000,000 * 0.01 * 0.01 = 2100 BTC.
The term "Vladimir Club" was coined on the Bitcointalk forum in 2011 or 2012 by user Vladimir, and turns out to be a convenient metric for comparing cost to own a percentage of one cryptoasset vs another.
OnChainFX uses the Y2050 supply as the 'eventual supply'.
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SilverDoge
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby SilverDoge » Thu Nov 09, 2017

The Big Bang Theory to air an episode revolving around Bitcoin: November 30th.

I won't be able to watch so you'll have to tell me how it goes!

http://bitguru.co.uk/tv-show-the-big-bang-theory-to-dedicate-full-show-to-bitcoin/
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Long John
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Long John » Fri Nov 10, 2017

BTC below $6800 at this hour. With the notable exception of Bitcoin Cash it doesn't seem to be flowing to alts, which are also generally down. CMC dropped below $199 billion (it had reached as high as $210 billion) so it appears to be profit-taking. I bought a little at $6720 and closed out my USDT balance on Bittrex. I've been meaning to do that anyway; I've always had an uneasy relationship with Tether, though a profitable one. When the coin is any of the Big 3 there's really no reason not to do it on GDAX, and save the fees on limit trades. GDAX trades directly to dollars, whereas Tether still needs to be converted to dollars if you're so inclined, a clunky and fee-laden process. And I've kind of wandered off the reservation. BTC back above $6800 in the time I've been babbling.

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby texmex66 » Fri Nov 10, 2017

Should have done this sooner but, just exchanged some BTC for BCH.

:pop:

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Bucketeer
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Fri Nov 10, 2017

Tex, I think this time next year you're going to be glad you did. I can't believe that so many people sold it out for chump-change, without even giving it a chance. You wouldn't believe all the crying on Reddit.
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Long John
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Long John » Fri Nov 10, 2017

If the recently free BCH is worth buying at almost $1,000 (that is, if there is an expectation it will be at least $2,500 in a year, or else why risk it?), then BTC will have a hard time getting to $10,000. Just my opinion that both scenarios coming true is at the same time is unlikely.

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Bucketeer
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Fri Nov 10, 2017

I dunno John. It seems to me that everything that BTC does, BCH does better. The Bitcoin infrastructure supports BCH. BCH has leadership and direction, BTC is like a rudderless sailboat.

I just see a scenario when BTC looses users who migrate to BCH. BTC goes down in price, while BCH gains. I'm giving some serious thought to trading 50% of my BTC for BCH.

This situation troubles my bearish soul.
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Bucketeer
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Sat Nov 11, 2017

CME Bitcoin Contract Specifications

Contract Unit
5 bitcoin, as defined by the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR)

Minimum Price Fluctuation
Outright: $5.00 per bitcoin = $25.00 per contract
Calendar Spread and Basis Trade at Index Close (BTIC): $1.00 per bitcoin = $5.00 per contract

Trading Hours
CME Globex and CME ClearPort: 5:00 p.m. – 4:00 p.m. CT Sunday – Friday
BTIC: 5:00 p.m. - 10:00 a.m. or 11:00 a.m. CT (4:00 p.m. London Time) Sunday - Friday

Product Code
Outright: BTC
BTIC: BTB

Listing Cycle
Nearest 2 months in the March Quarterly cycle (Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec) plus the nearest 2 "serial" months not in the March Quarterly cycle. Contract months for initial listing: Dec 2017, Jan 2018, Feb 2018, Mar 2018.

Termination of Trading
Last Day of Trading is the last Friday of contract month.
Trading in expiring futures terminates at 4:00 p.m. London time on Last Day of Trading.

Position Limits
Spot Position Limits are set at 1,000 contracts. A position accountability level of 5,000 contracts will be applied to positions in single months outside the spot month and in all months combined. The reportable level will be 25 contracts.

Block Minimum
5 contracts

Price Limits
Price limits for a given Business Day are made by reference to the most recent Bitcoin Futures settlement price, settled at 4:00 p.m. London time each Business Day.

Special price fluctuation limits equal to 7% above and below prior settlement price and 13% above and below prior settlement price and a price limit of 20% above or below the previous settlement price. Trading will not be permitted outside the 20% above and below prior settlement price.

Settlement
Cash settled by reference to Final Settlement Price, equal to the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR) on Last Day of Trading. Subject to all requisite approvals and filings.

Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR)
$6811.25 Last Updated 10 Nov 2017

Bitcoin Real Time Index (BRTI)
$6804.95 Last Updated 10 Nov 2017 23:08 pm CST
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Bucketeer
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Sat Nov 11, 2017

Andreas Antonopoulos is a member of the CME oversight committee. I hope he hasn't sold his soul to the devil, and I hope his role is more than being a lap-dog. Time will tell.
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Bucketeer
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Sat Nov 11, 2017

Bitcoin Cash website.
https://www.bitcoincash.org/
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SilverDoge
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby SilverDoge » Sat Nov 11, 2017

Bucketeer wrote:Andreas Antonopoulos is a member of the CME oversight committee. I hope he hasn't sold his soul to the devil, and I hope his role is more than being a lap-dog. Time will tell.


Andreas is asked to endorse a dozen ICO's every week and he never has. I highly doubt he would sell his soul out to the CME when he won't even put his name as an adviser to a single ICO. He has already spoken with the Canadian parliament before too, and has never "sold out" as far as I can tell. Doubt he would start now.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby SilverDoge » Sat Nov 11, 2017

Bucketeer wrote:I dunno John. It seems to me that everything that BTC does, BCH does better. The Bitcoin infrastructure supports BCH. BCH has leadership and direction, BTC is like a rudderless sailboat.

I just see a scenario when BTC looses users who migrate to BCH. BTC goes down in price, while BCH gains. I'm giving some serious thought to trading 50% of my BTC for BCH.

This situation troubles my bearish soul.


Here is my personal feeling on this. I feel like BCH simply hit the "easy button" and said we want to implement our own solution, without getting consensus, yet all the while standing on the backs of Satoshi and the bitcoin developers, and wanting to maintain the bitcoin brand. What is the governance model of BCH? Whatever Roger Ver says? This leadership is also a colossal weakness with a decentralized, peer to peer currency. It is another reason I like the governance structures of PIVX & DASH with MasterNode voting as a means of consensus.

I understand why they did what they did, but I don't like the execution. They are by definition an alt-coin, yet they are trying to brand themselves as bitcoin and I'm not buying what they're selling. Now that doesn't mean it won't be successful, especially while bitcoin is still in this scaling debacle. But lightning network (LN) isn't that far off. I want to see what SegWit + LN can do for our scaling and transaction problems before selling out like BCH. This is why I have more respect for LTC than BCH. Litecoin said we are the silver to bitcoin's gold. They owned it and developed their own coin after cloning bitcoin core's code. BCH is like shaving off 5% of a gold coin and then calling itself the "real gold" with value and potential.

BCH said the solution is bigger blocks. That will surely centralize the distribution of the network. It takes 8 times as much hard drive space and computing power to run a node. And, many of these servers won't be "home hosted" but hosted on AWS (Amazon Web Services). That makes it much more vulnerable to a single company or a government that tells that company to shut it down. So, in the short term BCH might seem like a good solution, but when one thinks it through, perhaps not.

Again, this doesn't mean it won't outperform bitcoin in the next 6-12 months. But I'm not thinking that short - I'm thinking 10 years. Will BCH overtake bitcoin in 10 years? I put the likelihood at 7%.
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SilverDoge
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby SilverDoge » Sat Nov 11, 2017

SilverDoge wrote: Will BCH overtake bitcoin in 10 years? I put the likelihood at 7%.


With that being said, I do own the same amount of BCH that I own of BTC currently, just in case.
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Long John
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Long John » Sat Nov 11, 2017

I have no objection to Bitcoin Cash co-existing peacefully with Bitcoin. Godspeed and good luck. But if the aim is to replace the original Bitcoin (and I have seen postings that they hope to drop the "Cash" from the name and be just "Bitcoin" in time) then I can't really bring myself to root for that and spend my BTC buying up BCH. No problem if former HODLers want to do that, they're big boys and must do what feels right even if others deem it unwise. It's basically what I've been doing since I entered this arena. :lol: Just can't spend my BTC on BCH and sure as hell not paying cash for it. Every BCH that exists was FREE three month ago.

In fact, if there develops a serious fight for supremacy between the two, I could see serious damage done to both sides and I probably wouldn't stay invested long enough to see who wins. (It would be BTC, in my opinion. It's just too huge to be toppled, even by a fork that processes transactions faster by virtue of bigger blocks and less traffic, but BTC could be badly scarred in the fight.)

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Bucketeer
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Sat Nov 11, 2017

I see price parity coming with BTC/BCH, with perhaps a small premium to BCH.

I think that BTC will decrease in value while BCH rises in value until relative parity is established. We're really close to the action, and understand the politics and the in-fighting. If somebody new expressed an interest in Bitcoin, you could explain the entire history (and only confuse them in the process).

If you told them that both coins are equal, with the same limited supply, but BCH was "better, faster, cheaper", I think most people would go with BCH.

Love him or hate him, Roger Ver has done a lot for Bitcoin over the years. I can think of many people I would rather have in a leadership position of BCH, but time will tell. The claim to which coin deserves to be called Bitcoin should be based upon market cap, the number of wallets in existence, and the total number of transactions. Roger deserves credit for realizing Bitcoin has transmissibility problems, and attempting to fix those problems so that Bitcoin can scale.

BCH is closer to Nakamoto's vision of a digital currency than what BTC has evolved into.

The Core developers have a done a wonderful (and thankless) job with BTC. I view them as a small group of monks that worship a deity named Nakamoto, who may or may not exist. They are reluctant to change the Bitcoin code because they view it as a sacred document.

In the end, the market will decide which coin is Bitcoin, not Roger Ver.

Disclosure - I bought 5 BCH and 100 SALT tokens this morning. I still love Bitcoin, but I'm leveraging my investment.
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SilverDoge
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby SilverDoge » Sat Nov 11, 2017

Bucketeer wrote:I see price parity coming with BTC/BCH, with perhaps a small premium to BCH.

I think that BTC will decrease in value while BCH rises in value until relative parity is established. We're really close to the action, and understand the politics and the in-fighting. If somebody new expressed an interest in Bitcoin, you could explain the entire history (and only confuse them in the process).

If you told them that both coins are equal, with the same limited supply, but BCH was "better, faster, cheaper", I think most people would go with BCH.

Love him or hate him, Roger Ver has done a lot for Bitcoin over the years. I can think of many people I would rather have in a leadership position of BCH, but time will tell. The claim to which coin deserves to be called Bitcoin should be based upon market cap, the number of wallets in existence, and the total number of transactions. Roger deserves credit for realizing Bitcoin has transmissibility problems, and attempting to fix those problems so that Bitcoin can scale.

BCH is closer to Nakamoto's vision of a digital currency than what BTC has evolved into.

The Core developers have a done a wonderful (and thankless) job with BTC. I view them as a small group of monks that worship a deity named Nakamoto, who may or may not exist. They are reluctant to change the Bitcoin code because they view it as a sacred document.

In the end, the market will decide which coin is Bitcoin, not Roger Ver.

Disclosure - I bought 5 BCH and 100 SALT tokens this morning. I still love Bitcoin, but I'm leveraging my investment.


Very interesting. I like the contrary opinion. I view the developers differently though. While reluctant to change (which is good), there have been many BIPs implemented along the way. I own equal amounts of BTC and BCH and will simply hold through it.
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