Bitcoins - fad or trend?

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Bucketeer
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Wed Nov 08, 2017

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SilverDoge
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby SilverDoge » Wed Nov 08, 2017

We bitcoin bulls often talk about getting into the market at the right time. Well, if you were waiting to enter a position into the bitcoin sphere, now is the time to pay attention. Most often, news happens in an unpredictable way, like the Chinese ICO ban, the Chinese exchange stoppages, countries banning or adopting bitcoin, etc. These things happen unexpectedly most times. What we do know, however, is that on/about 16NOV17 there will be a B2X fork. This fork will not be like bitcoin cash or bitcoin gold. Those forks were clear about their intent to have a clean break. Segwit2x is attempting to upgrade the bitcoin protocol, and wants to be the "original" bitcoin, but is going about it in an unconventional way. This means that the fork will be a contentious fork and nobody knows exactly how this will play out or go down. My personal feeling is B2X will fail, and it will simply become another alt-coin, but who really knows at this point.

My prediction however, is that immediately after this fork we will see a bitcoin price retracement downward. How far is unknown. If I had to put a number on it, I would guess that between 16NOV and the end of NOV we could see a price between $4,500 - $5,500 as a low, before heading back north again.

Therefore, if you were contemplating an entry into bitcoin, now is the time to get prepared. Get your accounts created so you can pull the trigger when you believe we are at the low point. Is it possible we only dip to the $6,xxx level? Yes. Good luck.

EDIT: Now that the Segwit2X fork is off, this prediction no longer holds.
Last edited by SilverDoge on Wed Nov 08, 2017, edited 1 time in total.
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Long John
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Long John » Wed Nov 08, 2017

SilverDoge wrote:This fork will not be like bitcoin cash or bitcoin gold. Those forks were clear about their intent to have a clean break. Segwit2x is attempting to upgrade the bitcoin protocol, and wants to be the "original" bitcoin, but is going about it in an unconventional way. This means that the fork will be a contentious fork and nobody knows exactly how this will play out or go down. My personal feeling is B2X will fail, and it will simply become another alt-coin, but who really knows at this point.

I read an opinion piece recently saying it amounts to a 51% attack. That is, the 2X proponents don't want to co-exist with Bitcoin, they want to replace it. And while it will fail, it will do some damage in the short term. So said the piece.

https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoins-bogey ... 51-attack/

SilverDoge wrote:My prediction however, is that immediately after this fork we will see a bitcoin price retracement downward. How far is unknown. If I had to put a number on it, I would guess that between 16NOV and the end of NOV we could see a price between $4,500 - $5,500 as a low, before heading back north again. Therefore, if you were contemplating an entry into bitcoin, now is the time to get prepared. Get your accounts created so you can pull the trigger when you believe we are at the low point. Is it possible we only dip to the $6,xxx level? Yes. Good luck.

I agree, and I'm certainly not the sharpest tool in the crypto shed. This has to be in the minds of people with huge bags of Bitcoin. Will they even wait for the fork to sell? BTC is over $7500 this morning, up some $500 from yesterday's low. If traders believe BTC will cost $2000 less after the fork, or even $1000 less, what do you think they will do? Yup. And those actions will necessarily make it so. The question is when? How high will BTC pump before they act, and what will be the extent of the drop? To those who want no more than the Bitcoin they have, and never plan to use it anyway, it won't matter. But I think a lot of the market sees the opportunity to increase their holdings. (Many, too, just see the opportunity to increase their cash, and if they bought at $7000 yesterday, selling at $7500 today is business as usual.)

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby SilverDoge » Wed Nov 08, 2017

Segwit2x is cancelled according to the twitter of Andreas & Charlie Shrem.

Announced here too: http://www.trustnodes.com/2017/11/08/segwit2x-called-off-bitcoin-will-not-hardfork

This is good news for sure!

:clap: :clap: :clap:
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Wed Nov 08, 2017

Let's see the total value of 1 Bitcoin at $7723.

1) Bitcoin...........$7723
2) Bitcoin Cash......$619
#) Bitcoin Gold......$151
_____________________
Total.................$8493

The above number assumes that you owned your Bitcoins on August 1st, and have not stripped out Cash or Gold. Prices are from CoinmarketApp v3.32.
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Long John
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Long John » Wed Nov 08, 2017

SilverDoge wrote:Segwit2x is cancelled according to the twitter of Andreas & Charlie Shrem.

Announced here too: http://www.trustnodes.com/2017/11/08/segwit2x-called-off-bitcoin-will-not-hardfork

This is good news for sure!

:clap: :clap: :clap:

And that's why BTC hit the afterburners!

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Silversaving » Wed Nov 08, 2017

wondered why every crypto I owned was up 15%-35% today. Hopefully we're back to smooth skies now

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Wed Nov 08, 2017

Long John wrote: To those who want no more than the Bitcoin they have, and never plan to use it anyway, it won't matter. But I think a lot of the market sees the opportunity to increase their holdings.


The majority of the Bitcoin market is, and has been Hodlers. We create the scarcity, and the lack of liquidity in Bitcoin.

That said, we create the (relative) price stability (and increases), by creating scarcity.
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Long John
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Long John » Wed Nov 08, 2017

Well, that didn't last long. Soared up to $7870 upon news of B2X being abandoned, then quickly dropped as low as $7070. As has been noted, some people were only in (or increased their positions) for the B2X airdrop and quickly jumped out with profits when it spiked. I'm almost glad I was too busy to do anything about it.

Anyway, recovered back above $7300 as there was a lot of buy support around $7K. Now the coast is clear for the time being, fork-wise, it will be interesting to see what the market will do. It's possible the disappointed B2Xers aren't done pulling out. I wouldn't mind a quiet spell or a slow rise. Who can complain, with BTC above $7000?

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby SilverDoge » Thu Nov 09, 2017

Long John wrote:Who can complain, with BTC above $7000?


No complaints here. My target price is still 10 x gold price. At that point I will trade 1 bitcoin for 10 ounces of gold. The question is will it happen this year or next year. I'm going to guess May 2018, but it could very well be March 2019 too. Maybe if gold dips below $1,200 it will happen sooner? ;)
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Bucketeer
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Thu Nov 09, 2017

SilverDoge wrote:Segwit2x is cancelled according to the twitter of Andreas & Charlie Shrem.

Announced here too: http://www.trustnodes.com/2017/11/08/segwit2x-called-off-bitcoin-will-not-hardfork

This is good news for sure!


I think there are several good things that might come from the cancellation. The first is, it removes an element of uncertainty for those people who are going to trade on the CME. The second thing is that I believe this will also help Bitcoin Cash in the long run.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby SilverDoge » Thu Nov 09, 2017

At some point, Chris Coney switched from using CoinMarketCap (CMC) to using OCFX https://onchainfx.com which I messed around with for 10 minutes and I love it. The only down side is that it only has 57 cryptos listed and therefore it doesn't have half my portfolio. Regardless, there are some cool features such as:

Y2050 Marketcap (implied)
The Y2050 Marketcap is the implied value of the total expected supply of an asset on Jan 1st 2050.
For example, the total exepcted supply of ZCash on Jan 1st 2050 is 20,941,047 ZEC. Thus, if the price today of 1 ZEC is $250, the Y2050 implied marketcap is $5.2B. The current marketcap, though, works out to about $520m since only 10% of the total eventual supply has been emitted as of September 2017.

Why do we do this?
The emission schedules (ie, how many tokens are released over time) can vary greatly from one asset to another. By normalizing to the expected supply when most existing coins have reached supply stability, an investor can better judge relative value today. If one asset has 100% of supply released today and is trading at $10, but another has 5% released and is trading at $100, the second asset will undergo 20x supply dilution over time, whereas the first asset will have no dilution. It's misleading to compare the market-capitalizations of assets today when their supplies change at very different rates over time; thus we extrapolate to the implied market-capitalization after most of the supply growth has taken place for all assets.

Vladimir Club
The Vladimir Club refers to owning 1% of 1% of an asset's eventual supply. For example, bitcoin's supply is fixed to 21,000,000 coins. Therefore, to be "in the Vladimir Club" for bitcoin requires:

21,000,000 * 0.01 * 0.01 = 2100 BTC.
The term "Vladimir Club" was coined on the Bitcointalk forum in 2011 or 2012 by user Vladimir, and turns out to be a convenient metric for comparing cost to own a percentage of one cryptoasset vs another.
OnChainFX uses the Y2050 supply as the 'eventual supply'.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby SilverDoge » Thu Nov 09, 2017

The Big Bang Theory to air an episode revolving around Bitcoin: November 30th.

I won't be able to watch so you'll have to tell me how it goes!

http://bitguru.co.uk/tv-show-the-big-bang-theory-to-dedicate-full-show-to-bitcoin/
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Long John » Fri Nov 10, 2017

BTC below $6800 at this hour. With the notable exception of Bitcoin Cash it doesn't seem to be flowing to alts, which are also generally down. CMC dropped below $199 billion (it had reached as high as $210 billion) so it appears to be profit-taking. I bought a little at $6720 and closed out my USDT balance on Bittrex. I've been meaning to do that anyway; I've always had an uneasy relationship with Tether, though a profitable one. When the coin is any of the Big 3 there's really no reason not to do it on GDAX, and save the fees on limit trades. GDAX trades directly to dollars, whereas Tether still needs to be converted to dollars if you're so inclined, a clunky and fee-laden process. And I've kind of wandered off the reservation. BTC back above $6800 in the time I've been babbling.

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby texmex66 » Fri Nov 10, 2017

Should have done this sooner but, just exchanged some BTC for BCH.

:pop:

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Bucketeer
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Fri Nov 10, 2017

Tex, I think this time next year you're going to be glad you did. I can't believe that so many people sold it out for chump-change, without even giving it a chance. You wouldn't believe all the crying on Reddit.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Long John » Fri Nov 10, 2017

If the recently free BCH is worth buying at almost $1,000 (that is, if there is an expectation it will be at least $2,500 in a year, or else why risk it?), then BTC will have a hard time getting to $10,000. Just my opinion that both scenarios coming true is at the same time is unlikely.

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Bucketeer
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Fri Nov 10, 2017

I dunno John. It seems to me that everything that BTC does, BCH does better. The Bitcoin infrastructure supports BCH. BCH has leadership and direction, BTC is like a rudderless sailboat.

I just see a scenario when BTC looses users who migrate to BCH. BTC goes down in price, while BCH gains. I'm giving some serious thought to trading 50% of my BTC for BCH.

This situation troubles my bearish soul.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Sat Nov 11, 2017

CME Bitcoin Contract Specifications

Contract Unit
5 bitcoin, as defined by the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR)

Minimum Price Fluctuation
Outright: $5.00 per bitcoin = $25.00 per contract
Calendar Spread and Basis Trade at Index Close (BTIC): $1.00 per bitcoin = $5.00 per contract

Trading Hours
CME Globex and CME ClearPort: 5:00 p.m. – 4:00 p.m. CT Sunday – Friday
BTIC: 5:00 p.m. - 10:00 a.m. or 11:00 a.m. CT (4:00 p.m. London Time) Sunday - Friday

Product Code
Outright: BTC
BTIC: BTB

Listing Cycle
Nearest 2 months in the March Quarterly cycle (Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec) plus the nearest 2 "serial" months not in the March Quarterly cycle. Contract months for initial listing: Dec 2017, Jan 2018, Feb 2018, Mar 2018.

Termination of Trading
Last Day of Trading is the last Friday of contract month.
Trading in expiring futures terminates at 4:00 p.m. London time on Last Day of Trading.

Position Limits
Spot Position Limits are set at 1,000 contracts. A position accountability level of 5,000 contracts will be applied to positions in single months outside the spot month and in all months combined. The reportable level will be 25 contracts.

Block Minimum
5 contracts

Price Limits
Price limits for a given Business Day are made by reference to the most recent Bitcoin Futures settlement price, settled at 4:00 p.m. London time each Business Day.

Special price fluctuation limits equal to 7% above and below prior settlement price and 13% above and below prior settlement price and a price limit of 20% above or below the previous settlement price. Trading will not be permitted outside the 20% above and below prior settlement price.

Settlement
Cash settled by reference to Final Settlement Price, equal to the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR) on Last Day of Trading. Subject to all requisite approvals and filings.

Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR)
$6811.25 Last Updated 10 Nov 2017

Bitcoin Real Time Index (BRTI)
$6804.95 Last Updated 10 Nov 2017 23:08 pm CST
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Bucketeer
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Sat Nov 11, 2017

Andreas Antonopoulos is a member of the CME oversight committee. I hope he hasn't sold his soul to the devil, and I hope his role is more than being a lap-dog. Time will tell.
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