ETHEREUM

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shinnosuke
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Re: ETHEREUM

Postby shinnosuke » Thu Apr 29, 2021

Even now, at these ATH prices, is it unlikely for a new investor in ETH to achieve double digit returns over the next, say, 12 months?

Will crypto prices continue to track (real) inflation rates?

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SilverDoge
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Re: ETHEREUM

Postby SilverDoge » Thu Apr 29, 2021

shinnosuke wrote:Even now, at these ATH prices, is it unlikely for a new investor in ETH to achieve double digit returns over the next, say, 12 months?

Will crypto prices continue to track (real) inflation rates?


This is a great question, so let's explore. ETH is a legit crypto so we aren't worried about an entire project collapse. Our risk is in the upgrade to ETH 2.0 and EIP 1559. If those upgrades go smoothly, ETH is going to outperform.

Let's look at 2 angles. Distance from previous ATH, and possible market cap. The talk I'm hearing is a projected target of $1 trillion for ETH this cycle. We are currently at $319 billion. That is a 3x from current price. I'd say it is possible. I don't think we'll get to $10k ETH this cycle, but it could happen.

Second, we aren't at 100% above the JAN 2018 high yet. Bitcoin has already gone up by over 3x from its previous ATH, and I don't think we are anywhere near finished. Do we think ETH will underperform BTC? Perhaps, but if I was forced to say which will do better this cycle I'd say ETH.

Here is the chart. We are about 96% higher than the previous ATH, and a 3x move from that 2018 ATH is $4,257. Also note the price action at the end of the last cycle in ETH. In the final 9 weeks of the cycle, ETH moved up 390%. Now I don't think we'll see the same percent gains at the end of this cycle but perhaps a 150% - 200% move in the final 2 months? Now we are up 111% in the last 9 weeks, but we aren't at the end of the cycle yet. ETH normally has a week Q4 and a strong Q1, if the last 6 years of history repeat. Keep that knowledge in the back of your pocket and move funds around as desired. I'm not buying ETH at these prices, but if I didn't own any I would absolutely be DCA'ing into the market with larger buys on dip days.
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shinnosuke
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Re: ETHEREUM

Postby shinnosuke » Thu Apr 29, 2021

SilverDoge wrote:
shinnosuke wrote:Even now, at these ATH prices, is it unlikely for a new investor in ETH to achieve double digit returns over the next, say, 12 months?

Will crypto prices continue to track (real) inflation rates?


This is a great question, so let's explore. ETH is a legit crypto so we aren't worried about an entire project collapse. Our risk is in the upgrade to ETH 2.0 and EIP 1559. If those upgrades go smoothly, ETH is going to outperform.

ETH normally has a weak Q4 and a strong Q1, if the last 6 years of history repeat.


Here's where I stumble...
It's not like the price of ETH is a sentient being choosing for itself the ideal amount for which it wants to be bought and sold. The price is determined by "the invisible hand" (if you ask Adam Smith) or evil forces (if you ask tdtwedt). The price is going to rise or fall due to various reasons known in the marketplace. It would seem that the people working on ETH 2.0 and EIP 1559 are those who are most invested in ETH and therefore most desirous that their ideas are implemented to plan. Why is an "if" even possible? Why wouldn't the upgrades go smoothly? And why would the price of ETH decide to have a weak Q4? The price of ETH doesn't get to decide what it will be in any given quarter. Sounds like people with invisible hands are spending on Christmas presents instead of ETH.

I've read so much crypto analysis, written with exceeding great confidence by its authors, which are just guesses in the long run. Lots of people with lots of opinions who rarely see exactly the results they forecast.

If I were king of Bitcoin, I would make it safer and easier to access (including no .gov intervention). I would also require castration for anyone who hacks crypto.

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SilverDoge
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Re: ETHEREUM

Postby SilverDoge » Thu Apr 29, 2021

shinnosuke wrote:Here's where I stumble...
It's not like the price of ETH is a sentient being choosing for itself the ideal amount for which it wants to be bought and sold. The price is determined by "the invisible hand" (if you ask Adam Smith) or evil forces (if you ask tdtwedt). The price is going to rise or fall due to various reasons known in the marketplace. It would seem that the people working on ETH 2.0 and EIP 1559 are those who are most invested in ETH and therefore most desirous that their ideas are implemented to plan. Why is an "if" even possible? Why wouldn't the upgrades go smoothly? And why would the price of ETH decide to have a weak Q4? The price of ETH doesn't get to decide what it will be in any given quarter. Sounds like people with invisible hands are spending on Christmas presents instead of ETH.

I've read so much crypto analysis, written with exceeding great confidence by its authors, which are just guesses in the long run. Lots of people with lots of opinions who rarely see exactly the results they forecast.

If I were king of Bitcoin, I would make it safer and easier to access (including no .gov intervention). I would also require castration for anyone who hacks crypto.


You are correct, but the data doesn't lie. Does it make sense that ETH has weak Q4s and strong Q1s? No. But I don't fight the data. Historically that is what happens so until the trend changes, I position myself accordingly. You are also correct about a lot of people having a lot of opinions. This is why the only guy I follow religiously in this space is Ben. Straight shooter who doesn't shill alt bags he already purchased, and he is data driven, with his own unique risk metrics that are actually predictive.
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SilverDoge
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Re: ETHEREUM

Postby SilverDoge » Fri Apr 30, 2021

shinnosuke wrote:I've read so much crypto analysis, written with exceeding great confidence by its authors, which are just guesses in the long run. Lots of people with lots of opinions who rarely see exactly the results they forecast.


This is an even better and more recent summary by Ben. It is hard to argue with the data. As to the "why" ETH performs in this cyclical manner, I have no idea. Ben doesn't attempt to speculate on the "why" either, he just uses the available data to inform his decision making. My conclusion: they are guesses, but at least this is an informed guess based on historical data and trends.

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SilverDoge
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Re: ETHEREUM

Postby SilverDoge » Fri Apr 30, 2021

ETH still going strong to new all time highs!
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Munkish
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Re: ETHEREUM

Postby Munkish » Sat May 01, 2021

And Visa and some banks are starting to use Ethereum as a settlement layer. I think it's only the beginning.

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Re: ETHEREUM

Postby Preludedude » Sun May 02, 2021

$3016....

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SilverDoge
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Re: ETHEREUM

Postby SilverDoge » Sun May 02, 2021

$3,050...

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Re: ETHEREUM

Postby Silversaving » Mon May 03, 2021

Pretty cool to see. I used to think $5k ETH was a pipe dream. Now? Shesh, we could see it by end of year. What a crazy world we live in.
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Re: ETHEREUM

Postby Silversaving » Mon May 03, 2021

Ethereum you beautiful bastard! It just keeps going up! Lifechanging stuff happening right now. What a time to be alive if you're trying to change your life for the better. Congrats to all the rest of you that have been around it for years now. See you all on the moon.
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Re: ETHEREUM

Postby Munkish » Mon May 03, 2021

I bought my first pretty late at around $600 I should have bought more then, but I'm glad I've kept buying on the way up.

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Silversaving
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Re: ETHEREUM

Postby Silversaving » Mon May 03, 2021

Ethereum is up $400 since Silverdoge posted the price.......yesterday :shock:
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Re: ETHEREUM

Postby bankmining » Tue May 04, 2021

bankmining wrote:What up with the Ethereum Classic price action? I didn’t realize it was moon shooting until I thought I’d look at it today to see if it was dead yet. 100% this week, 200% for the month.


Now up 300%+ last 30 days. Do people buy this thinking it’s the same as Ethereum?

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Re: ETHEREUM

Postby Preludedude » Tue May 04, 2021

bankmining wrote:
bankmining wrote:What up with the Ethereum Classic price action? I didn’t realize it was moon shooting until I thought I’d look at it today to see if it was dead yet. 100% this week, 200% for the month.


Now up 300%+ last 30 days. Do people buy this thinking it’s the same as Ethereum?


Noobs on Coinbase see ETH for $3400 and ETH Classic for $45. They just buy the cheaper one. I can see that happening.

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Re: ETHEREUM

Postby bankmining » Wed May 05, 2021

Preludedude wrote:
bankmining wrote:
bankmining wrote:What up with the Ethereum Classic price action? I didn’t realize it was moon shooting until I thought I’d look at it today to see if it was dead yet. 100% this week, 200% for the month.


Now up 300%+ last 30 days. Do people buy this thinking it’s the same as Ethereum?


Noobs on Coinbase see ETH for $3400 and ETH Classic for $45. They just buy the cheaper one. I can see that happening.


I think you’re right on with that. It’s now over $100, up like 90% in the last day or so. Bitcoin cash looks like it’s doing the same thing.

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SilverDoge
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Re: ETHEREUM

Postby SilverDoge » Sat May 08, 2021

Silversaving wrote:Pretty cool to see. I used to think $5k ETH was a pipe dream. Now? Shesh, we could see it by end of year. What a crazy world we live in.


Perhaps you meant the end of May? This ETH bull market is amazing. BTC has taken a back seat for a couple months and allowed Ethereum to have some fun in the sandbox. It's time to create generational wealth!

$3,680 - new all time high!
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Silversaving
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Re: ETHEREUM

Postby Silversaving » Sat May 08, 2021

SilverDoge wrote:$3,680 - new all time high!


$3,950 Pretty much every time you mention a new ATH, the price spikes up a few hundred soon after. So, ummm, keep doing that! :shock:
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Re: ETHEREUM

Postby Munkish » Sat May 08, 2021

At this point, I think $10k is pretty reasonable to expect if the bull market continues. We haven't even gotten to EIP1559 and the transition to proof of stake yet.

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SilverDoge
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Re: ETHEREUM

Postby SilverDoge » Sun May 09, 2021

Amazing!
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